The Greek government is launching a bond today totaling 5 billion Euros. This is just the beginning of the process and so they are not out of the woods by any measure. The Greek government announced an austerity package yesterday which totalled about $6.4 billion of additional debt reduction plans. The implementation is key, as is this debt issue and EU support (verbally or otherwise). It is estimated that Greek will need to issue $72 billion of debt this year (53 billion euros). The 5 billion euros today is just the start and it does not come without a cost. The rate is likely to be 6.4%.
The EURUSD is down on the day today. Yesterday the price rose above the previous consolidation ceiling at the 1.3691 level. The current price is back below this key level which puts into question the viability of the upside momentum from the last few days. Watch this level today for clues (i.e. after Trichet). I would expect sellers against it with stops on a move back above the level. A move above will be needed to keep the upside momentum going.
ON the downside, the price is now moving below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3668 level. There is suppport at the 1.3654 level and below that a move toward the 1.3613 level can not be ruled out (Midpoint of the move down from Feb 16 and 100 hour MA level which is the blue line in the chart above - see hourly chart above). Addittonal support comes in at 1.3621 (38.2% of the move up from March 2nd low to the high). So profit takers are likely to slow a move down at this area. A break below however, will not be welcomed and could signal the new move back down for the pair.
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