imgadp

Top-Hot-Stocks

Hot Article ------ Favorites this page

2009-12-03

Bernanke defends record in bid for second term

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, making his case for a second term, defended his record on Thursday before a skeptical Senate that criticized the central bank for failing to prevent the financial crisis.

The soft-spoken Fed chief, who is widely expected to win Senate backing, argued that the U.S. central bank's aggressive actions to combat the financial crisis had been crucial to thwarting an even more severe economic slump.

"We played a central role in efforts to quell financial turmoil," Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee. "The outcome could have been markedly worse."

Bernanke faced pointed, sometimes angry, questions from senators, many of whom accused the Fed of regulatory failures that laid the groundwork for last year's financial meltdown.

Still, several expressed support, crediting him with acting decisively to battle the crisis. The chairman looked set to win the committee's approval, which would clear the way for a vote by the full Senate.

The Fed chairman, whose four-year term expires at the end of January, admitted to some lapses by the central bank, but said a hands-on supervisory function was crucial to its ability to safeguard financial stability.

"We need to have the expertise, information and authority associated with a bank supervisor," the former Princeton economics professor told the lawmakers, who are considering stripping the Fed of its power to regulate banks.

The crisis, which erupted on Bernanke's watch, provided fertile ground for tough questioning from both Democrats and Republicans on the committee, which needs to approve the nomination before it can be considered by the Senate as a whole.

The panel's top Republican, Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, wondered why the Fed spent so little time discussing regulation at its periodic policy meetings.

"Would it be fair to say that before the crisis, in the last couple of years, not a lot of time was spent on regulatory supervision?" asked Shelby.

Despite the aggressive questioning, several senators praised Bernanke's tactics in battling the financial crisis, the worst in generations. He answered the critiques calmly.

Under his tenure, the Fed has slashed benchmark interest rates to near zero and pumped more than $1 trillion into the financial system. Still, the economy has suffered its deepest recession since the Great Depression and the unemployment rate has soared to a 26-1/2-year high of 10.2 percent.

ANGRY AT BAILOUTS

Pressured by angry constituents, lawmakers are upset over taxpayer bailouts of financial companies such as insurer American International Group, and a lax regulatory approach that allowed the troubles to fester.

Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who is not a member of the banking committee, has said he will try to stall Bernanke's nomination, forcing Senate leaders to round up 60 votes before they can actually tackle the nomination itself. In the absence of such a "hold," a simple majority of 51 would be enough to secure Bernanke's reappointment.

Three Republican members of the banking committee, Senators Jim DeMint, David Vitter, and Jim Bunning said they would oppose Bernanke's nomination for a second term.

"Americans want a new Fed chairman who is willing to provide transparency into the Fed's actions, who is willing to accept responsibility for the Fed's mistakes, and who is willing to support true monetary reform that guarantees the soundness of our money," DeMint said in a statement.

Vitter said in a statement he was troubled by Bernanke's support for funneling massive amounts of funds to troubled institutions

"These programs have worsened our economic crisis by making 'too big to fail' a permanent government policy and created further debt that will now be the burden of our children and grandchildren," said Vitter, adding that he opposed the Senate voting on Bernanke until the legislature first debated stricter auditing rules for the Fed.

Bunning of Kentucky, a long-time Fed critic and the only panel member to oppose Bernanke's first appointment four years ago, said he would do everything possible to block or delay the process.

"From monetary policy to regulation, consumer protection, transparency and independence, your time as Fed chairman has been a failure," he said.

Despite voices of discontent, the nomination appears set to overcome any hurdles.

"The fact is you did take the action that was necessary, and it was a very creative and aggressive action," said Senator Judd Gregg, a Republican from New Hampshire.

Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, who has championed a proposal that would restrict the Fed's reach, said the reappointment would send the "right signal" to financial markets and that efforts to derail the nomination would fail.

"I think the majority of the members will support the chairman," Dodd told reporters.

FED INDEPENDENCE

Dodd's panel has yet to schedule a vote. If the Senate does not confirm Bernanke by January 31, he could continue to serve unless replaced.

Even if the confirmation sails through, Bernanke faces the prospect of running a diminished institution if some of the congressional proposals to curtail the Fed's powers and political independence become law.

Dodd wants to strip the Fed of its regulatory powers and unify the fragmented structure of U.S. bank oversight under one roof.

He would also require presidential appointment and Senate confirmation of regional Federal Reserve bank board chairmen, taking away a prerogative enjoyed by the 12 regional Fed banks, a proposal directly opposed by Bernanke during testimony.

More worrying to Fed officials, legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives that could be voted on as early as next week would submit the Fed's monetary policy decision-making to review by a congressional watchdog agency.

Bernanke, who has warned the measure could spook investors and drive up interest rates, sought on Thursday to erect a roadblock to the measure in the Senate.

"The Fed's credibility depends on the market's perception that we are independent in making monetary policy decisions," he said.

Comcast lands NBC in deal that reshapes media

Comcast Corp struck a deal to buy a majority stake in NBC Universal from General Electric Co, creating a media superpower that would control not just how television shows and movies are made, but how they are delivered to the home.

The deal had been discussed for months and brought to light deep divisions over the future of the media business, with some lauding Comcast Chief Executive Officer Brian Roberts as a visionary and others calling it the most foolhardy acquisition since AOL bought Time Warner in 2001.

In a world where the Internet has disrupted traditional media, Comcast wants NBC Universal so it can deliver programing to audiences however they may want it -- through TV sets, personal computers or mobile devices. Not only is Comcast the largest U.S. cable distributor, it also is the leading Internet service provider to homes.

But critics of the deal, including some Comcast investors, suggest there is too little overlap between the businesses to draw out meaningful savings, and that competition regulators are bound to burden it with restrictions.

Moreover, big media deals rarely work, they say, pointing to Time Warner Inc's breakup as an example. Once the world's biggest media company, Time Warner has spun off Time Warner Cable Inc and will soon do the same with AOL.

"There's no question that you really have a great little test tube here because you have one large company that said this is absolutely not the thing to do," said veteran media dealmaker Barry Diller, CEO of IAC/InterActive Corp.

"And you have another company that said it's exactly the thing to do," he told the Reuters Global Media Summit. "So it's going to be an interesting comparison over time."

Comcast's shares have fallen 11 percent since reports of the deal talks first surfaced in September. The stock rose 6.5 percent to $15.91 on Thursday, after Comcast unveiled the transaction and raised its dividend 40 percent -- a move analysts said was aimed at appeasing shareholders.

"We're still very unsure about the value created from this deal," said Collins Stewart analyst Thomas Eagan.

"They definitely heard concerns on Wall Street over the past couple of weeks about the deal inhibiting their ability to buy back shares or increase their dividends," he said.

The deal calls for Comcast to contribute $6.5 billion in cash, its own cable TV networks and other assets in return for a 51 percent stake in NBC Universal, owner of TV networks, a movie studio and theme parks. GE will keep a 49 percent stake.

The companies said that NBC Universal's businesses have been valued at $30 billion. The Comcast businesses that will be part of the deal -- including E!, Versus, the Golf Channel and 10 regional sports networks -- are valued at $7.25 billion.

Once adjustments are made for debt, the new venture would have an equity value of about $28 billion, the companies said. That would give it three times the market value of CBS Corp or Discovery Communications Inc, and nearly as much as Rupert Murdoch's $33 billion News Corp. Walt Disney Co at $57 billion remains the biggest media company.

SUN VALLEY TALKS

The deal culminates negotiations that began last spring, nearly collapsed several times along the way, and were kept secret from even top level NBC Universal executives until September, when news reports of the talks surfaced.

GE also had to secure Vivendi SA's agreement to sell its 20 percent stake in NBC Universal for $5.8 billion. That was in doubt until GE CEO Jeff Immelt jetted off to Paris for a sit-down with Vivendi, after attending a state dinner hosted by U.S. President Barack Obama.

Immelt, who for years showed no public interest in selling NBC Universal, only began seriously considering a deal with Comcast after a March breakfast meeting with JPMorgan banker James Lee, according to a source close to the talks.

As reported by the New York Times, and confirmed by the source, talks included a July meeting in Sun Valley, Idaho involving Immelt, Comcast Chief Operating Officer Steve Burke, and Ralph Roberts, who founded the cable company in 1963 and passed the reins to son Brian in 2002.

A similar cast of executives now must make their case to U.S. regulators, who are certain to hear complaints from consumer groups, before the deal closes. Comcast said it hopes regulatory approval would come in nine to 12 months.

Once completed, the deal will allow GE to concentrate on its industrial business, and could be the first step in a full break with NBC Universal, ending a relationship that stretches back to the dawn of television.

GE can redeem half its stake in the venture after 3 1/2 years, and the rest after seven years, subject to conditions.

The joint venture will be headed by current NBC Universal Chief Executive Jeff Zucker, who helped build the company's valuable cable business, but has also presided over a prolonged slump at its flagship broadcast network.

These days, NBC regularly finishes last in the prime-time ratings race, having never recovered from the loss of hits including "Seinfeld" and "Friends." Zucker has tried to cut programing costs, abandoning dramas at 10 p.m. in favor of Jay Leno's poorly rated, though inexpensive, comedy-talk show.

HOLLYWOOD AND HULU

But Comcast's interest has less to do with NBC than with cable networks like MSNBC or USA, and its digital business.

The digital jewel is video site Hulu.com. Having a stake in that will help Comcast sidestep a big concern for cable companies -- namely, that users may start cutting subscriptions if they can see their favorite shows online for free.

The deal can also help Comcast offer blockbuster films on movie-on-demand channels ahead of a DVD release. The idea is that since it will own NBC Universal's movies, Comcast could narrow the traditional "window" between a movie's theatrical run and its release for home entertainment.

It is not the first time Comcast has made a play to add movies and TV shows to its business. In 2004, Comcast's Roberts launched a hostile and audacious $54 billion bid to buy Walt Disney -- but in that case, he ultimately failed.

Morgan Stanley, UBS and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch gave financial advice to Comcast, while JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi advised GE.

Shares of Comcast rose 97 cents to $15.91 on the Nasdaq, while GE fell 7 cents to $16.00 on the NYSE.

Ulta Salon 3rd-qtr profit rises 69 percent

Beauty supplies retailer Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. said Thursday its profit rose 69 percent in the third quarter as sales rose by a double-digit percentage.

But its revenue outlook for the fourth quarter was below a consensus Wall Street estimate, and the shares fell.

Ulta predicted fourth-quarter sales of $362 million to $376 million, below the $377 million prediction of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Ulta said profit would be 22 cents to 26 cents per share, compared with the 25 cent per share estimate of analysts.

In the quarter that ended Nov. 1, the company earned $8.5 million, or 14 cents per share, compared with a profit of $5 million, or 9 cents per share, a year earlier. The latest profit results beat an 11 cent per share estimate.

Revenue rose 11 percent to $284 million from $254.8 million. Analysts had expected $278 million.

Sales at stores open at least a year rose 1.5 percent in the quarter. Sales at stores open at least a year are a key measure of retailer performance because they measure growth at existing stores rather than from newly opened ones.

Ulta shares fell 41 cents to $17.50 in after-hours trading Thursday after closing at $17.91, down 29 cents from a day earlier.

Stocks slide on ISM services data, jobs anxiety

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday after data showed the vast U.S. services sector unexpectedly shrank in November and investors worried that Friday's non-farm payrolls report may show the recovery is sluggish.

Stocks sold off going into the close, led by a slide in financials, as Bank of America Corp's (BAC.N) massive equity offering spurred concerns that other banks could sell new shares and dilute existing shareholders' equity. The S&P financial index (.GSPF) ended down 2.1 percent.

However, shares of Bank of America, parent of the largest bank ranked by assets, ended up 0.7 percent at $15.76 on optimism that its plan to repay $45 billion of government bailout money will free the bank from government restrictions, especially on executive pay.

On the data front, the services sector index fell to 48.7, indicating that this huge component of the U.S. economy had experienced contraction last month, according to a report from the Institute for Supply Management.

The ISM data hurt sentiment a day before November's unemployment figures are released in an even more influential economic report.

"Given ISM today, and given the rally of the last few days, it may be some nervousness ahead of tomorrow's unemployment number," said Kurt Brunner, portfolio manager at Swarthmore Group in Philadelphia, in reference to the malaise on Wall Street.

"You'll probably see some deterioration in the unemployment rate. One would think you're going to get at least some improvement in the job losses, but it bears being a little cautious."

Economists polled by Thomson Reuters forecast a drop of 130,000 nonfarm jobs in November in Friday's report and an unemployment rate holding steady at 10.2 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) dropped 86.53 points, or 0.83 percent, to end at 10,366.15. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) slipped 9.32 points, or 0.84 percent, to close at 1,099.92. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) fell 11.89 points, or 0.54 percent, to finish at 2,173.14.

After the bell, Bank of America sold $19.3 billion of common securities, according to a pricing document sent to investors. The bank sold 1.286 billion common equivalent securities at $15 a share. The bank plans to use proceeds from the securities sale to help repay bailout funds from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP.

ROUGH GAME FOR TAKE TWO

In other news after the bell, shares of Take Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO.O) dropped 7.5 percent to $10.10 as the video game publisher warned about its financial outlook.

During the session, the S&P 500 broke a three-day winning streak. With the S&P 500 up 63 percent from a closing low on March 9, tolerance for disappointing data has worn thin as investors seek justification for stocks' lofty valuations.

A bright spot was provided by Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O), up 6.5 percent at $15.91 on Nasdaq after the company struck a deal to buy a majority stake in NBC Universal from General Electric Co (GE.N).

The transaction, once closed, will create a media superpower. GE shed 0.4 percent to $16 on the New York Stock Exchange.

BAD DAY AT THE MALL

Among the day's other most closely watched numbers, U.S. retailers posted much weaker-than-expected sales for November in a slow kickoff to the holiday shopping season.

The Retail HOLDRs ETF (RTH.P) fell 1.2 percent.

Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF.N), a clothing retailer that caters to teens, dropped 9.3 percent to $36.21. Abercrombie & Fitch's November same-store sales slid 17 percent, much worse than the analysts' average view of a 9.3 percent drop.

The stock of U.S. discount chain Target Corp (TGT.N) fell 2.9 percent to $46.35.

Other data on Thursday showed that the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, according to a government report, while third-quarter productivity was slightly less robust than previously thought, a third report said.

Volume was moderate on the NYSE, with 1.13 billion shares changing hands, well below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion. On the Nasdaq, about 2.02 billion shares traded, below last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a ratio of 2 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, about nine stocks fell for every four that rose.

U.S. services sector shrinks; jobless claims fall

An index of the U.S. services sector shrank in November to its lowest since July, according to a report released on Thursday that shocked economists who had forecast a recovery from recession was picking up steam.

That news offset a report showing new applications for U.S. jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest in more than 14 months, suggesting the battered labor market was edging toward stability.

The White House said after the report it has seen signs the U.S. unemployment rate, which will be updated for November on Friday, "might tick upward."

The Institute for Supply Management said its services index shrank to 48.7 from 50.6 in October, well below the 51.5 median forecast in a Reuters poll. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

"It's a disappointing number," Gary Thayer, chief macrostrategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis. "Manufacturing is being helped by low inventories but the service sector is taking longer to get a turnaround started."

The services sector, which represents about 80 percent of U.S. economic activity, includes businesses such as banks, airlines, hotels and restaurants.

(For a graphic on the ISM report see http://link.reuters.com/myf84g)

U.S. government bond prices fell on Thursday, sending yields to one-week highs, partially on signs of improvement in the job market.

All three major U.S. stock indexes (.DJI) (.SPX) (.IXIC) dropped on the day while the dollar fell against the euro but gained against the yen.

ALL EYES ON THE JOB MARKET

The weak labor market, which is seen as the biggest threat to recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s, is being closely watched. The U.S. November nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday.

Initial claims for state unemployment aid fell to 457,000 from 462,000 the previous week, the U.S. Labor Department said on Thursday, for a fifth straight weekly drop. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims would rise to 480,000.

"Now we have had two weeks in a row clearly below 500,000. That is very encouraging. In order to move from net loss of jobs into positive payrolls territory, we need to get down to about 400,000 in claims. We are halfway there," said Jay Mueller, senior portfolio manager at Wells Capital Management in Milwaukee.

The government data on Friday is expected to show that job losses moderated sharply in November and probably will support views that the shrinkage in payrolls is in its final stages.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast U.S. employers shed 130,000 jobs last month after cutting 190,000 in October.

President Barack Obama on Thursday called on corporate America to help tackle the nation's highest unemployment in 26 years and dismissed skeptics who have doubted his efforts to boost employment.

Obama hosted business and labor leaders at the White House to brainstorm how to lift employment creation.

In yet more evidence of labor market weakness, U.S. motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG.N) said on Thursday it had ratified a new contract with the machinists' union representing employees at its largest factory that involves job cuts of almost 50 percent.

AN ECONOMY SLOWLY ON THE MEND

U.S. retail sales were also eyed for clues on the economy's health.

As of Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and which marks the start of the holiday shopping season, analysts had forecast a 2.5 percent rise in November sales at stores open one year, according to Thomson Reuters data. But estimates have shrunk since the weekend, and as of Wednesday, analysts expected an increase of only 2.1 percent.

That would still be the best showing since April 2008 and marks a shift in gears from a drop of 7.8 percent in 2008, the worst drop since Thomson Reuters began tracking data in 2000.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday the economy was slowly healing but he told CNBC television that given there were still problems in the housing market and that credit remained tight, economic problems were far from over.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, making a case for a second term, told senators on Thursday at a hearing on his nomination that the U.S. central bank's forceful actions had prevented a devastating financial crisis from being even worse.

He added that the economy needs to grow by 2.5 percent annually to keep the unemployment rate stable and that the current high unemployment rate will leave long-term scars in the labor market.

Under his tenure, the Fed has slashed interest rates close to zero and pumped more than $1 trillion into the financial system to beat back the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Rates on 30-year mortgages set new record low

The average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped to a record low of 4.71 percent this week, pushed down by an aggressive government campaign to reduce borrowing costs.

The rate, published Thursday by Freddie Mac, is the lowest since the mortgage finance company began tracking the data in 1971. The previous record of 4.78 percent was set during the week ending April 30 and matched last week.

The Federal Reserve is pumping $1.25 trillion into mortgage-backed securities to try to bring down mortgage rates, but that money is set to run out next spring. The goal of the program is to make home buying more affordable and prop up the housing market.

Despite the government support, qualifying for a loan is still tough. Lenders have tightened their standards dramatically, so the best rates are available to those with solid credit and a 20 percent down payment.

Freddie Mac collects mortgage rates on Monday through Wednesday of each week from lenders across the country. Rates often fluctuate significantly, even within a given day, often tracking yields on long-term Treasury bonds.

This week drop reflects a rush of investors into the security of government debt after concerns about financial trouble in Dubai drove investors to safe harbors. But rates climbed back later in the week, and analysts say they are likely to remain volatile.

"There are no guarantees that mortgage rates are going to stay at these low levels," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

And millions of American families have not been able to take advantage of them, particularly in the areas where home prices have fallen the most.

About 11 million households, or 23 percent of homeowners with a mortgage, owe more on their home loans than their house is currently worth according to First American CoreLogic, a real estate information company.

That makes refinancing difficult.

While the government has launched a program designed to help these "underwater" borrowers, only about 140,000 homeowners have used it so far.

In Orlando, mortgage broker Chris Brown says the low rates are a boon to first-time homebuyers who can qualify for a loan. But he says he isn't getting much business from homeowners looking to refinance.

"Most of the people that could refinance probably have" done so, he said. "Rates have been artificially low for quite some time."

The average rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low of 4.27 percent, from 4.29 percent last week, according to Freddie Mac.

Rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 4.19 percent, up from 4.18 percent a week earlier. Rates on one-year, adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 4.25 percent from 4.35 percent.

The rates do not include add-on fees known as points. One point is equal to 1 percent of the total loan amount.

The nationwide fee for loans in Freddie Mac's survey averaged 0.7 points for 30-year loans. The fee averaged 0.6 points for 15-year, five-year and one-year loans.

Buyers and homeowners who want to refinance are picking up their phones. Mortgage applications rose 2 percent last week from a week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday, driven by a more than 4 percent increase in purchase applications and a nearly 2 percent increase in applications to refinance existing loans.

Getting a Mortgage in 2010: 10 Things to Know

More than three years into a painful housing crash, the real estate market has sent recent--albeit tentative--signs of stabilization. Home sales have increased, inventory levels are down, and price declines have become less precipitous. Along with more affordable home prices and a tax perk from Uncle Sam, attractive mortgage rates--which remained below 5 percent as of late November--have been a driving force behind this development. The availability of low mortgage rates will play a decisive role in the performance of the 2010 housing market as well. To help consumers better understand the requirements and costs they will face as they shop for a home loan next year, U.S. News spoke with a handful of housing market experts and compiled a list of 10 things to know about getting a mortgage in 2010.

[Slide Show: 10 Things to Know About Getting a Mortgage in 2010.]

1. Still tight: The steep run-up in home prices during the first half of the decade was fueled in large part by breezy lending standards. Some bankers handed out loans without down payments or documentation requirements. But when the housing bubble popped and those loans became massive losses, banks began raising lending standards for borrowers of all stripes. And with the labor market continuing to erode--the unemployment rate hit 10.2 percent in October--and mortgage delinquency rates setting new records, there is no reason to expect credit requirements to loosen in 2010. "Lending standards have tightened dramatically between 2007 and 2009," says Scott Stern, CEO of Lenders One, a cooperative of independent mortgage bankers. "I think there will be a little more belt-tightening in 2010."

2. Down payments: This tight credit environment affects consumers in several ways. First, down payment requirements will be higher than they were just a few years ago. Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration are at the low end of the spectrum and come with minimum down payments of 3.5 percent. (More on FHA loans below.) Down payments on loans outside of the FHA will vary depending on the market, the borrower, and the property type. "Generally, to get the best rate around, you need at least 20 percent for a down payment," says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. "That doesn't mean you can't get a mortgage if you have less of a down payment . . . it just means that you are not going to get the best interest rates." Could lenders ease up on down payment requirements in 2010? Possibly. If lenders become convinced that home prices are improving, they may allow borrowers to put slightly less down. But don't expect that to occur until the end of the year--if at all.

3. Credit scores: Cecala says that borrowers will need a FICO score of at least 730 to get the best mortgage rates. They also will need to fully document their income and assets. To ensure that your credit score is as strong as possible, borrowers should access their credit reports. The Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act entitles consumers to one free credit report from all three major credit reporting bureaus--TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian--each year. (The free reports can be obtained at annualcreditreport.com.) Consumers should examine each report to make sure it doesn't include any errors. "[Consumers] ought to know what their credit score is; they ought to know what's on their credit report; they ought to make sure that what's on their credit report is in fact theirs," says Rick Allen, director of strategic initiatives for Mortgage Marvel, an online mortgage shopping website. "That's a must do for everybody."

4. FHA: Borrowers who can't meet these tighter lending requirements can turn to the FHA, a federal agency that insures mortgage loans against default. Standards for FHA loans are typically less onerous than those for private lenders. The average credit score for FHA borrowers is about 690, and the minimum down payment is 3.5 percent, Cecala says. "If you can't make the 730 [credit score] or you can't make the 20 percent down [payment], the next best thing is FHA," Cecala says. The downside is that FHA loans come with additional costs. Borrowers must pay an insurance premium as well as a slightly higher interest rate, Cecala says.

5. FHA increase? With so many borrowers unable to meet today's stricter lending requirements, FHA-backed loans have become increasingly popular. Today, the FHA guarantees nearly 3 of every 10 new home mortgages. That's a stunning increase from 2006, when the agency backed roughly 3 percent of new home loans. Meanwhile, the agency's finances have deteriorated considerably. The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for FHA loans increased from about 13 percent in the third quarter of last year to 14.36 percent in this year's third quarter. At the same time, the agency's capital reserve ratio dipped below the level that Congress mandates. In the face of mounting political pressure, the Obama administration has announced new steps that may make it more difficult for some borrowers to obtain mortgages backed by the agency. The steps include raising the minimum FICO score, increasing up-front cash requirements, and possibly charging higher insurance premiums. "We want to ensure that we are able to continue to support the housing market in the short term and provide access to homeownership over the long-term, while minimizing the risk to the American taxpayer," Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan told a congressional committee in written testimony.

6. Asset purchase program: Mortgage rates in 2010 are expected to climb from 2009's extremely low levels. After the Federal Reserve announced plans to purchase debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year, rates on 30-year fixed conforming mortgages fell to historic lows, plunging to 4.97 percent in late November from 6.19 a year earlier. But the Fed's asset purchase program is scheduled to expire at the end of the first quarter of 2010, and a lack of private demand for mortgage-backed securities could lead to higher rates. Keep in mind that the Fed has already extended this program once. And if it appears that the market needs additional government support to keep rates low, the Fed could always decide to remain in the market. Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com expects rates to increase from current levels to between 5 and 5.25 percent by the end of March 2010.

7. Jumbo mortgages: Rates on more expensive home loans--or jumbo mortgages--have dropped to extremely attractive levels, hitting 5.88 percent in the week that ended November 27. "That ranks with all-time bests," Gumbinger says. But while he expects rates on jumbo mortgages to remain historically attractive throughout 2010, many borrowers won't be able to obtain them. That's because most banks have to keep jumbo mortgages on their books and therefore apply much stricter lending standards to them. (Smaller conforming loans can be sold off to Fannie and Freddie.) "Your down payment requirements [for jumbo mortgages] are anywhere between 40 percent down to 20 percent down, depending upon what is happening in your marketplace," Gumbinger says. "You may have to show superhuman strength in terms of credit, [and] you may have to show extraordinary income size."

8. Fed rate hike: In attempting to jump-start the economy, the Fed has slashed its benchmark federal funds rate to as low as zero percent. And even as some express concerns about future inflation, the central bank in early November said that economic conditions were "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." As such, economists don't expect the Fed to raise rates anytime soon. "The statement does not lead us to change our view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged until the September 2010 meeting, when we expect the first rate hike," Dean Maki of Barclays Capital Research said in a report. But while an increased federal funds rate could push rates on certain products--such as adjustable rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit--higher, it has little direct influence on fixed mortgage rates.

9. Recovery: A recovery in the U.S. economy may also lead to increased mortgage costs. That's because economic improvement could create more demand for credit, which pushes rates higher. At the same time, a recovery could embolden investors to move money out of ultrasafe assets like 10-year treasuries and into more risky investments. And since 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year treasury note, such a development would put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Gumbinger says that economic improvement and other factors could push rates on 30-year fixed mortgages as high as 5.75 percent by midsummer. "After that, you are going to be at the whims of the economy," he says.

10. Fannie and Freddie's future: A wild card in the outlook for mortgage rates is the administration's plans for Fannie and Freddie. The two mortgage finance giants--which buy home loans from banks--are a key source of liquidity for the market. The government-chartered companies have long been controversial, and speculation about their future has been mounting since their shaky finances forced Uncle Sam to take over last year. The administration's plans for their future--which could include liquidation or converting them to public utilities--could become clearer in early 2010. This decision could have profound implications for mortgage rates, Gumbinger says. "We could have some dislocations in the supply chains with mortgages depending upon how immediate or how gradual the changes to the structures of those companies are," he says.

2009-12-02

As Long As Money Is Free, Why Not Buy Commodities?

Now that the Dubai indigestion has passed, the markets appear to have returned to the old pattern: buy anything that will benefit from a liquidity bubble. Investors are making the bet that central banks will keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future.

We view this as a flawed assumption. However, the key to making money in the financial markets is to have a different opinion than the herd AND then have the herd see it your way. While we have a differing opinion, the herd has yet to see it our way.

The current sentiment in the financial markets is, “as long as money is free…why not buy something?” To date the beneficiaries of this mentality have been precious metals, oil and equities. As investors, we need to be one step ahead of the herd and therefore this morning we present the next area that could be recipient of liquidity love.

Our answer is commodities. While most commodities have enjoyed a nice uptrend over the last few months, they could still have room to run. Liquidity coupled with reduced South American crops could be all the fuel that is needed for grains and soft commodities to move higher.

Dubai Fiasco Shows The True Nature Of Bubbles

“At particular times a great deal of stupid people have a great deal of stupid money… At intervals, from causes which are not to be the present purpose, the money of these people - the blind capital, as we call it, of the country - is particularly large and craving; it seeks for someone to devour it, and there is a ‘plethora’; it finds someone and there is ’speculation’; it is devoured and there is ‘panic’.”
- Walter Bagehot, 1826-1877, editor-in-chief of The Economist

What to make of the mini-debacle now unfolding in Dubai? Is it a tempest in a teapot (and thus to be ignored), or the start of something more?

There was once a time, many moons ago, when $60 billion was a lot of money. (That’s how much Dubai World, a government-owned entity, holds in liabilities with no sure promise of bailout.)

In terms of giant, smoking credit craters, Lehman Brothers was a heck of a lot bigger. So was AIG.

And yet, while Dubai “may not be the next Lehman or AIG,” The Wall Street Journal opines, “it could offer up some nasty surprises for the world’s banking system.”

An analyst at Deutsche Bank - where they are masters of spotting the obvious - further notes, “The situation in Dubai may be a controllable event, but it reminds us how much governments are potentially on the hook for all over the world.”

Bubble City

Weep not for Dubai World’s angry creditors. The authorities certainly aren’t.

In response to the budding crisis, Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi, the central bank governor of the United Arab Emirates, reportedly offered this little gem:

“I have an advice for foreign investors. They should study available investment opportunities and conduct realistic feasibility studies to make sure they are real opportunities with no risk.”

Your humble editor laughed out loud on reading that. The Sultan might as well have said, “You pays your money and you takes your chances.” Or, a bit more succinctly, “Caveat Emptor.”

Dubai, you see, was a “Bubble City.” Not just figuratively, but literally - at least as far as the planners and schemers were concerned.

“A few years ago,” the FT reports, “[advertising] said that the emirate would build a ‘bubble city’… a development of restaurants and museums suspended above ground by helium balloons [ed. note: !!] and surrounded by a transparent enclosure.”

Transparently speaking, anyone willing to invest in a vision of that sort - a literal pie-in-the-sky scheme, assuming the restaurants serve pie in Dubai - just had to be an idiot. (Or perhaps a hedge fund manager…)

Thank the Economists

The Dubai foolishness begs a question. To channel Bagehot, why are investors so stupid at times? Seriously… what on Earth possesses people to pour non-trivial amounts of capital into such harebrained schemes?

On at least one level, one can blame the economists and efficient market theorists. These academic types are like bartenders who deny the existence of alcoholics.

“Rational economic man” is always and everywhere sober, these pointy-headed idiots say. And thus, if all market participants are sober, public drunkenness cannot exist in the marketplace… and thus all prices put forth by the market are rationally and soberly justified.

This moronic assertion, bolstered by layers of Ivy League credibility, encourages investors to ignore signs of mania (just as the barfly waves off friendly hints that perhaps he should call it a night). As the evening wears on, the drink becomes more and more intoxicating… but no one admits to being tipsy, let alone drunk as a skunk. Total inebriation ensues.

Pretending that bubbles do not exist, in other words, makes it far easier to grow and sustain the bubbles that do actually appear - with the government’s helping hand in most cases.

Questions and Contagion

As with the increasingly bizarre Tiger Woods affair, there are plenty of juicy details left to the Dubai story.

An undercurrent of political tension buzzes between Dubai and its rich big brother, Abu Dhabi. (Both countries are part of the U.A.E., or United Arab Emirates, but not as tightly linked as one might imagine.) Questions abound as to how well creditor’s rights will hold up if Dubai World implodes… and what M.E. investment flows will look like in the aftermath.

There is also question as to whether Dubai’s troubles will prove contagious. A handful of other countries - notably Greece - are looking very shaky. Will creditors with exposure to heavily leveraged schemes and flimsy asset structures in other locales take a hint?

In your editor’s view, those who view the Dubai trouble as “contained” are whistling past the graveyard. (Come to think of it, didn’t Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson describe the subprime crisis as “largely contained” back in 2007?)

Whether Dubai is the first domino in a chain or more of a one-off type event, investors have been rudely reminded of just how flimsy the whole rotten structure still is. When one ponders the embedded risks and mounting government liabilities, it becomes clear that stimulus-addicted Western economies aren’t that much better off than Dubai.

Then, too, there is the “when to sell” question. As we head into December - historically the strongest month of the year for equities - mutual fund managers are faced with a dilemma. Should they go for one last ramp into the holidays to cap off an über-bullish year… or let discretion be the better part of valor and book gains before they evaporate? With increasing risk of someone yelling “fire!” in a crowded theater, Dubai argues for the latter.

The True Nature of Bubbles

But getting back to bubbles… as a tutorial on the true nature of bubbles, Dubai is exquisite. (If Edward Chancellor ever updates Devil Take the Hindmost, his excellent history of manias throughout the centuries, the Bubble City will surely get a chapter.)

The thing to remember about a bubble - and the thing Dubai shows so clearly - is that it always starts with a good story. You can’t have a bubble without a story. And not just any story, but a damn compelling story. One that gets people excited… motivated… convinced on the merits of rock-solid evidence to first tiptoe in, then wade in, then dive in with abandon.

Then, too, you need a certain amount of glitz and glamour. Dubai had both in spades. The tiny outpost of just 1.2 million people (per 2006 estimates, including expats and migrant construction workers) boasted a glittering array of the most over-the-top real estate projects on the planet, including man-made, palm-shaped islands and a $650 million six-star hotel (the second tallest in the world).

Dubai was to be a financial oasis in the desert - a modern mecca of global capitalism. The Middle East needed such a place… global capital flows could easily support it… and big brother Abu Dhabi offered a psychic backstop in the form of hundreds of billions’ worth of oil money right next door.

Investors considered all these things and effectively decided that, given the opportunity, no price was too high to pay. And that is exactly how bubbles form. The compelling nature of the story, combined with the age-old influence of human nature (and investors’ love of a good thrill ride), leads to the taking of a good thing and blowing it all out of proportion.

This is why, when it comes to investing, valuation is critical (as Kent Lucas said in yesterday’s Taipan Daily, Six Vital Concepts for Successful Investing). When it comes to riding along for the long term, it is not just the power of the story, but the price one pays that makes the difference.

Will bubbles ever stop blowing? Probably not. After all, the psychology of the Dubai fiasco would be instantly recognizable to Walter Bagehot, and he died back in 1877 (note opening quote). When it comes to flights of fancy and full-on departures from reality, the Dubai fiasco was far from the first… and it will certainly be far from the last.

Why Right Now Is Deal Time In Real Estate

U.S. home prices are down 70% in terms of gold.

Everything else on the planet is up: gold, stocks, bonds, emerging markets, commodities - you name it. But home prices are down… And I’m buying. Here’s why:

  • U.S. homes are more affordable than ever. Right here, right now.
  • You can get truly “stupid” deals right now. I’m not sure how long they’ll last.

I’ll show you affordability first. Then we’ll quickly get to the “stupid” deals…

People buy homes based on their mortgage payments. They ask, “How much can I afford per month?” So housing “affordability” is a matter of three things: 1) home price, 2) mortgage rate, and 3) family income.

Home prices have crashed, and mortgage rates are at record lows. But family incomes have held up… So falling home prices plus ultra-low mortgage rates mean homes are more affordable than ever. Take a look…

Homes Have Never Been More Affordable

The last time home prices were even close to this affordable was the early 1970s. And you can see, home prices nationwide soared from those cheap levels. But affordability has NEVER been as great as it is right this minute!

Sure it feels bad out there in real estate. But that’s the feeling you need to get some truly “stupid” deals…

Let’s use the last big bubble as our guide… the dot-com bubble of 2000. Take a look at the chart. The story is simple…

Bubble, Bust, Bounce… Then Grind

After the Nasdaq Bust, the biggest gains were made in the Bounce… from October 2002 to January 2004. In just 15 months, the Nasdaq nearly doubled.

Much bigger gains are possible in real estate.

You can make bigger gains because, unlike the stock market, you CAN find absolutely stupid deals in real estate. All real estate is local… and each piece of property is unique. That’s not true for, say, shares of Apple. And you would never have the chance to buy shares of Apple way below the market price. But the seller of a unique property may be desperate and ready to sell at a huge discount.

Right now, the same sequence is happening in real estate as in the dot-com days: Bubble, Bust, Bounce, and then the Grind.

We’re Seeing the Same Thing in Real Estate

I believe we’re in the end of the Bust and the beginning of the Bounce. This is where the deals will happen. Finding a deal now will be your only legitimate shot at making triple-digit gains in residential real estate over the next few years.

But you have to do it right. You’re not going to make triple-digit profits buying at market price and selling at market price. You must buy WAY BELOW market price.

I expect the real estate Bounce will be meek. So you CANNOT count on price appreciation to make you your money. Instead, you have to buy at the first red star - cheap, cheap, cheap - and sell at the next red star - which is STILL below market price.

Personally, I have made lots of offers… I was on the courthouse steps just yesterday to bid on a property. I’ve bought some property at ridiculous prices, so I can personally attest that there are extraordinary opportunities out there.

What I’m talking about takes a lot of work. And I’ve done a bunch of homework and still not gotten a property. That’s OK. Be stingy… only be willing to pay less than 50% of market price. (You can use your county property appraiser’s website to see the tax-assessed value of a property.)

Look, homes are more affordable than ever. But it feels bad out there. This creates your opportunity. It’s deal time in real estate. Get started!

US Health Care Legislation: Our Prognosis

There is an interesting development in the health care debate.  Action by the opponents of health care reform may actually be counter-productive to their avowed interests.

Background

From my perspective, trying to help investors, the analysis of health care legislation has not been very good.  Most analysts were slow to grasp the fact that many committees had some power.  Eventually there was recognition that the bottleneck might be in the Senate, and everyone focused on the 60 votes needed for a cloture motion - cutting off a filibuster.

The Wall Street firms and the media alike have really cut back on staffing, so there are few genuine experts in political science who are working on this problem.  This makes it an opportunity for investors with some real insight.

Recent Developments

Last week the Senate passed the 60-vote hurdle on Majority Leader Reid’s plan.  That will now be the subject of a full debate.

Does it mean that there are enough votes for the plan?  No.

Does it mean that the public option will be included?  No.

One of the best sources of insight into the process comes from Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson, who is not in favor of the overall legislation, but nonetheless voted with the majority to move to a full debate.  Sen. Nelson wrote an op-ed piece in the Omaha World-Herald last week, explaining his vote for last week’s motion. There is a very nice analysis of the article on our sister site, ElectionStocks.  (I set the agenda for this work and always review the output.  Investors who want to know how policy-making may affect their investments should add the site to their readers.  There is plenty of information about policy initiatives and which stocks could be winners and losers.)

Some Predictions

Regular readers of “A Dash” understand that we do not advocate particular policy positions.  We have opinions, of course, but that is not our mission.  We aim to enlighten readers about the stock implications from what is likely to happen.

With that in mind, here are some of my own fearless forecasts:)

  • Some health reform legislation will pass this year.  There is a lot at stake for the President and the Congress.  Delay simply means defeat.  They will do whatever it takes.
  • The legislation will meet the test of the “minimal winning coalition” which we described here.  It will be a compromise, with whatever inducements are necessary to get the needed votes.
  • Most pundits will hate the compromise.  That is the nature of policy-making in a pluralistic society.  This is not recognized by the Wall Street analysts or Internet pundits.  Many have a political agenda, so there comments will relate to their interpretation of the merits, not the likely outcome.  Others view the wheeling and dealing that is essential to legislative action as some defect in representative government.  They need to take a class; it is covered in Poli Sci 101.  If you don’t like it, find your favorite dictatorship.  It is how legislatures work in representative democracies.

The Twist

Here is the interesting part for political observers.  The Senate debate will attempt to gain a 60-vote majority, to avoid a filibuster.  Some liberals insist on the public option.  Some marginal voters want a trigger mechanism.  Others are adamant in opposing the public option since they see it as the start of a government takeover of health care.

If these opponents all hold firm, the most likely outcome at this point, the 60-vote requirement will not be met.

In this case, the Democrats might try to pass legislation through the reconciliation process, a budget procedure intended to facilitate tax cuts and spending cuts that otherwise could not get the 60-vote margin.  Sen. Reid has publicly disavowed this strategy, but the Nelson article makes clear the existence of this latent threat.

Health care legislation through reconciliation would be stripped of many specific provisions, but a public option would probably be included.  Why?  This may pass the test of a budget-cutting measure.  Other provisions would fail on a parliamentary challenge.

The Result

To understand the likely result, one has to have the reconciliation “twist” in mind.  It is possible that some  marginal voters will realize that they can have more leverage over the final bill by avoiding the reconciliation alternative.

We are going to see a few weeks of debate that will determine the final shape of the bill.

Stock Implications

So far in the process, many health care stocks have remained undervalued because of uncertainty.  Typically, they rally when chances for passage seem dim.

Our analysis is that there may be a dip as the market senses the likelihood of passage.  Then, whatever the specific outcome, there will be a rally in many of these stocks when the uncertainty is lifted.

We will go shopping in the health group, with specific sub-sectors and names in mind.

People In Communist China Have More Faith In Free Enterprise Than Americans Do

US personal income rose in October. But it was boosted by government benefits, says David Rosenberg. Take away the free money from the feds and income actually went down.

Income has been going down for a long time in the US. English colleague Brian Durrant wonders why there is no revolution:

“Consider a country. For the top 20% of the population real incomes have increased by 60% since 1970. But for the other four-fifths real income has fallen by more than 10%. Am I talking about Guatemala or Bolivia? These sorts of inequalities have in the past provoked resentment sometimes articulated through revolutionary movements and social unrest. But I am not talking about a tiny Latin American state; these figures apply to the US. How can this be? Middle class America is surely better off compared to 1970; if you look at higher car ownership, better housing, more white goods and gadgets. The answer is debt. No wonder the politicians are frightened of it contracting!”

We have been saying that the last 10 years was a ‘lost decade’ in terms of income, employment and stock market growth. For most people, their whole adult lives have been spent slipping backward. Since the Carter Administration, the typical American has lost income. A whole generation made no financial progress.

But they didn’t revolt. Instead, they borrowed. It gave them more gadgets, gizmos and floor space. It also gave them the impression that things were getting better. Now we’ve reached the end of that period of debt expansion. Now debt is contracting. So are lifestyles…And so is the foundational American faith in free enterprise.

America flourished because its people believed in free enterprise and controlled public spending. Now, they seem to believe the exact opposition. That business must be carefully controlled…and the feds can spend however much they want.

But check this out. Now, people in communist China have more faith in free enterprise than Americans do.

Better Under Free Enterprise?

Can The Bank Of Japan Overcome Growing Deflation?

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) yesterday (Tuesday) took steps to preserve a fragile economic recovery by pumping more short-term funds into the nation’s banking system. However, many analysts are worried that the central bank didn’t do enough to put a ceiling on the yen, and prop up its ailing corporate sector.

Japan’s central bank said it would make available $115 billion (10 trillion yen) in three-year loans at 0.1% interest. The announcement was made after the BOJ held an extraordinary monetary policy meeting, which was called to “discuss monetary control matters based on recent economic and financial developments,” namely the rise of the yen and growing deflation that poses a threat to its nascent economic recovery.

Japan’s third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 4.8% annual rate, after revised growth of 2.7% in the second quarter. But the nation’s currency, which last week hit a 14-year high against the dollar, is jeopardizing the recovery by making Japanese exports more expensive for other countries.

Latent demand for Japanese goods and a declining dollar have sent Japan’s economy into a deflationary spiral. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) - which excludes fruit, vegetable, and seafood prices but not oil products - fell for an eighth straight month in October, tumbling 2.2%. That followed 2.3% decline in September.

The BOJ expects deflation to last through March 2012, the CPI to decline by 0.8% in the next fiscal year and 0.4% in fiscal 2011.

That’s bad news for Japanese exporters. Japan’s electronics companies lose a combined $369 million (31.8 billion yen) in annual operating profit for each 1 yen appreciation against the dollar, according to a Daiwa Research Institute Ltd. estimate of 44 companies in September.

Toyota Motor Corp. (TM: 81.98 +0.53 +0.65%), Sony Corp. (SNE: 27.00 -0.44 -1.60%), and Canon Inc. (CAJ: 38.63 -0.63 -1.60%) are some of the better-known companies whose earnings will suffer as the yen gains ground on the dollar.

Japan is “standing on the edge of a cliff” with regards to the yen and that the country needed “urgent steps to counter this critical situation,” Canon Chief Executive Officer Fujio Mitarai last month told Bloomberg News.

Canon would lose $50.7 million (4.4 billion yen) in sales and $28.8 million (2.5 billion yen) in operating profit in the three months ending Dec. 31 for every 1 yen gain against the dollar, Mitarai said.

Meanwhile, Toyota’s operating loss could widen by $1.0 billion (90 billion yen) in the fiscal second half, forcing the world’s largest auto company to move more manufacturing outside the country.

Deflation and Debt a Toxic Cocktail for Japan’s Economy

By ramping up short-term borrowing, the BOJ hopes to spark more lending in the corporate sector.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who has repeatedly called on the central bank to do more to address Japan’s deflation epidemic, lauded the move.

“I applaud their efforts to show their resolve to stop deflation and spur the economy,” he told reporters.

But not everyone was comforted by the BOJ’s announcement. With a seemingly dire situation for the Japanese economy, many analysts thought the BOJ would be more aggressive.

What a disappointment,” Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. in Tokyo, told Bloomberg. “Since they went out of their way to hold an emergency meeting, I thought they would at least boost purchases of long-term government bonds.”

Investor disappointment was evidenced by the modest gains the dollar made against the yen following the announcement. The Japanese currency fell to a level of 87.06 per dollar prior to the meeting, but that gain was pared back by yesterday afternoon, when the yen traded at 86.625 per dollar.

The BOJ’s reluctance to pursue a policy of full-blown quantitative easing may be explained by its limited options.

With the benchmark overnight lending rate at 0.1% there’s little room for the central bank to maneuver. Some analysts believe the BOJ wanted to give itself some leeway if conditions continue to deteriorate.

Matters are further complicated by Japan’s overwhelming national debt, which is almost twice the level of its GDP. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts Japan’s national debt will rise to more than 200% of its gross national product in 2011 from 170% in 2007, already the highest among rich nations.

That makes another government stimulus package extremely unlikely and puts more pressure on the central bank to hold the economy together.

For that reason, it’s likely that Japan is headed for another “prolonged period of deflation,” despite the central bank’s latest moves to ease monetary policy, James McCormack, head of Asia sovereign ratings at Fitch Ratings Inc., told The Wall Street Journal.

“When the economic backdrop is as weak as it is in Japan and deflation is as it has been in Japan, it’s very difficult to turn things around quickly,” he said. “Our expectation is that it will take a while.”

Fitch rates Japan AA with a stable outlook. This rating is supported by the country’s huge external assets but is constrained by its weak public finances.

Reasons To Be Suspicious Of This Market

A healthy bull run for the stock market must come from rising prices and rising volume. This is an old and time-honored stock market analysis concept, and probably one of the most profound insights into market behavior.

Thus, a rally lacking volume is at least suspicious. And a rally with declining volume is a sign of a weak market and usually a harbinger of a correction if not an outright trend change.

Have a look at the S&P 500 chart below. As you can see, the whole rally off of the March 2009 low is characterized by low volume. Hence, I see a high probability that this bull run will finally end and prove to be just a huge bear market rally.

S&P 500 Large Cap Index

Especially Weak: The Rally Since November 1

Now take a second look at the above chart. The rally since the late October low was especially weak. Volume was not only miniscule, it was also declining markedly. This tells me that the recent break out in prices to new highs for the year was on very thin ice.

Additional weakness comes from the advance-decline line and momentum indicators. Neither has confirmed these new market highs. In fact, they’re actually showing negative divergences! This is a typical sign of a weak market ready for a correction.

Finally, sentiment indicators got frothy when some of the major stock market indexes reached new highs for the year. The chart below shows advisory sentiment as published by Investors Intelligence …

S&P 500 Large Cap Index

As you can see, stock market bulls reached 50.6 percent of all newsletter writers, and the number of bears tumbled to a paltry 17.6 percent. Thus the bull-to-bear ratio jumped to 2.9. This is a very high figure, often associated with an interim stock market high.

All in all, the technical and sentiment indicators are in a position very typical for a market at risk. So I think we may soon get another marked correction, probably down to the October lows or even a bit lower.

And beyond the technical picture, there is also a major fundamental reason to be wary right now. Namely, that …

The Major Debt Problems Have Not Been Solved

The news of the financial woes in Dubai should remind investors that the major debt problems associated with the global real estate bubble have not been solved. So over the next two years I expect that we’ll hear from many more defaulting borrowers in and outside the U.S.

Dubai
The financial crisis in Dubai is sending a clear message.

And to make matters worse, governments’ reactions to the first act of this huge crisis has only aggravated the problems by shifting the risks from private entities to public ones.

It’s too early, however, for this second act to get started. I expect it’ll begin during the second half of 2010, when a new wave of mortgage resets starts hitting the U.S. banking system. And it will probably be as severe as the subprime reset wave was.

It’ll be very interesting to see how the governments around the globe react …

Some may still be strong enough to throw hundreds of billions of tax payers’ dollars at the problem again and start another round of insane and myopic policies. But others, the weaker ones, may find themselves trapped, not being able to absorb a new surge of losses.

Consequently, instead of only banks going bust we may well see banks plus some governments going bust!

But all that is in the future. Not yet. Dubai is just telling us not to forget the important things going on behind the scenes of this huge stock market and economic bounce thanks to the strongest peacetime stimulus in history.

And the technical picture is telling us that a correction could be in the cards, too.

For now, I would treat any potential stock market weakness as a buying opportunity since I don’t yet see an end to the medium-term up trend that started in March.

But we should never forget the long-term risks, either.

Stock Market Movers: Walgreen, Best Buy, Dyax

Early-morning bullish trading on the specialty retailer of consumer electronics suggests shares are not likely to decline much below the current price. Best Buy’s shares are slightly off this morning by less than 0.25% to $43.49. Optimistic investors are initiating credit put spreads in the near-term December contract. It appears approximately 5,000 puts were sold at the December 43 strike for an average premium of 1.26 apiece, spread against the purchase of roughly the same number of contracts at the lower December 41 strike for 65 cents each. Credit-spreaders pocket an average net credit of 61 cents per contract, which they keep if shares remain above $43.00 through expiration day.

WAG - Walgreen Co. - The largest drugstore chain in the U.S. posted a 3.9% increase in same-store sales for the month of November, which failed to satisfy average analyst expectations of 6.1%. The smaller-than-expected rise sent Walgreen’s shares 4% lower this morning to $37.76, and pushed implied volatility 15.39% higher to 27.92%. Option traders exchanged roughly 4,600 contracts on the stock by 10:15 am (EDT).

DYAX - Dyax Corp. - Shares of the biotechnology company jumped 27% to a new 52-week high of $4.46 this morning on news the firm received U.S. regulatory approval for its drug to treat hereditary angioedema. Option implied volatility on the stock imploded 50.42% to 118.27%. Investors exchanged approximately 3,615 call options at the December 5.0 strike as of 10:22 am (EDT). Total option volume thus far in the session exceeds 4,760 contracts, which represents 52% of total existing open interest on the stock of 9,099 lots.

Putting Major Markets Into Perspective - A Look Back From 1999 To 2009

With 2009 coming soon to a close, I thought it would be a good idea to put major markets into perspective by looking back to 1999 to 2009 on the monthly charts of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, US Dollar Index, Gold, and Crude Oil.

First, the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 peaked at 1,550 in early 2000 and late 2007 - both signaling market tops that price was unable to breach.

The current price of 1,100 is 30% lower than the 2000 and 2007 peaks after a stellar rally from the March lows.  As great as the rally has been, we’re still in the midpoint from peak to decline (actually we’re almost exactly 50% from the high to the 2009 lows).

I can’t help but note a similarity to the rise from early 2003 into early 2004 which resembles the current rise, though the current rally has covered more price and percentage change than the 2003 ‘full year’ rally (2009 looks like a ‘full year’ rally with the exception of January and February).

Still, at 1,100, we’re beneath the 1,300 level that price was trading at the start of 1999 - that’s 15% under where price began 1999.

Next, the NASDAQ:

People often forget how devastating the NASDAQ “crash” was in 2000 and 2001, and that it will take many more years if not a decade or more to reach the 5,000 index peak seen as 2000 began.

With price currently at 2,250, that’s still 55% beneath the 5,000 price peak and we’re still under the 2,500 level the NASDAQ traded when January 1999 began (10% beneath).

We’re about 25% down from the 2007 peak near 2,800.

Crude Oil:

Next to Gold, Crude Oil was the ‘darling’ of the 2000s… with the exception of the 2008 price collapse from $147 to $35 per barrel.

Price began 1999 near $12 per barrel and then peaked in mid-2008 at $147 a barrel - an amazing and stratospheric 1,100% rise from low to peak.

Price still remains well above the 1999 level, trading currently at $80% (550% higher than 1999’s start) but still roughly 50% beneath the 2008 price peak.

Gold:

Gold will likely be the ’story market’ of the decade of the 2000s.  Price began 2000 at $300 per ounce and is currently trading 400% higher at $1,200 per ounce.  As of this writing, there is no end in sight, with prominent market analysts calling for $1,500, $2,000 or even higher price targets.

Gold, unlike Crude Oil, has more than recovered its $1,000 price peak in mid-2008 when Crude Oil peaked at $147 per barrel.  In fact, gold is roughly 20% higher than its 2008 price peak (keep in mind the S&P 500 is still down 50% from its 2007 peak).

The US Dollar Index:

The market that has suffered most is that of the US Dollar (Index).  The Dollar Index began 1999 at the $95 Index level, rose prominently until its mid-2001 peak above $120… and fell all through the decade with the exception of 2005 and late 2008.  Price remains in a primary downtrend.

While the chart may look terrifying, in percentage terms, the Index is ‘only’ down 25% from where it began 1999 at $95, and is down 40% from its 2001 peak near $120.

Use this post and these charts as a reference for the 1999 - 2009 period when looking at how major markets have performed over the last decade.

Steer Clear Of This High Flying Online Retailer

In an interview on CNBC, Blue Nile (NILE: 59.76 +1.14 +1.94%) President and CEO Diane Irvine said “[Monday] looks to be our best Cyber Monday ever…we’ve exceeded our expectations, and I think what you’re seeing is that consumers are coming online and seeing the convenience and the value”.

There’s that word again, value. But while Blue Nile may offer value to affluent shoppers, with a trailing P/E of 81, the stock sure doesn’t offer any value to investors.

Blue Nile was founded in 1999 and has grown into the largest online retailer of certified diamonds and fine jewelry in what is an extremely fragmented market, largely dominated by small mom-and-pop shops. But the company fills a definite need and market demand based on a simple idea: diamonds can be simple to understand and choosing an engagement ring need not be complicated.

The company’s success allaying consumer anxiety and educating buyers has won accolades from Time, The Wall Street Journal, and Forbes over its ten year history. Two of my good friends bought engagement rings and wedding bands from the site, and raved about the outstanding value and great service.

But oftentimes the share price of strong performers exceeds the true value of the company. And this is certainly the case with Blue Nile.

Blue Nile’s stock has increased 168% over the last 52-weeks. That performance tops the S&P 500’s 34% rally and the S&P Retail Index’s 69% gain. But this extreme out-performance is not where the story ends with this high flyer.

Blue Nile has grown revenues at just an average annual rate of 7.6% from 2006 through 2009 (including estimates for 2009 Q4), and increased earnings per share at only 8.3%. Hardly the explosive growth that the stock’s current P/E would suggest. Clearly forward guidance should validate the share price, right?

Wrong. Consensus analyst estimates for 2010 revenue and EPS growth are 15% and 29%, respectively. That puts 2010 EPS at $1.12, and the stock is trading at forward P/E of 53. That’s still extremely rich, no matter what kind of jewels the company sells. And even though affluent shoppers may increasingly opt for a $20,000 piece of jewelry from Blue Nile versus the same thing on Fifth Avenue for $30,000, the company’s slim 3.8% profit margin will require much more then 15% revenue growth to justify the stocks price.

US Dollar Down As Dubai Debt Concerns Subside

The U.S. Dollar fell to a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as concerns about debt issues in Dubai subsided, leading to increased demand for higher yielding currencies. Further weakness in the Dollar was attributed to a report that Chinese manufacturing increased at its fastest pace in five years.

The weakness in the Dollar helped boost commodity and stock demand as investors once again felt comfortable adding more risk to their portfolios.

Support for the U.S. Dollar continued to erode all day triggering a collapse in the Dollar Index to near last week’s low at 74.27. A breakthrough this level sets up a further decline to 73.67 which would match the April 2008 bottom.

News that Chinese manufacturing rose to a seasonally adjusted level of 55.7 helped drive the EUR USD over $1.51. Later this week, traders expect the European Central Bank to leave interest rates unchanged, but offer plans to gradually decrease its financial stimulus package.

The GBP USD rose sharply as U.K. manufacturing increased slightly. Technically, this market rallied back into a retracement zone at 1.6574 to 1.6646. This market may use this current retracement as an opportunity to form a secondary lower top. Yesterday’s drop in consumer confidence and rising unemployment are still major concerns for the bulls.

The USD JPY rose after the Bank of Japan took action to weaken its currency. The BoJ voted earlier this morning to leave interest rates unchanged while deciding to provide three-month loans to commercial banks at an interest rate of 0.10 percent. This action by the BoJ is expected to help stimulate growth and prevent deflation.

News that Russia will add the Canadian Dollar to its Forex reserves, along with higher equity and commodity markets, helped to pressure the USD CAD. Demand for higher yielding assets should continue to strengthen in the Canadian Dollar. The chart pattern suggests more downside action to follow now that the .618 retracement level at 1.0459 and a pair of old bottoms at 1.0449 and 1.0416 have been broken. The only thing that could stop the rise in the Canadian Dollar will be action by the Bank of Canada to provide liquidity to the market. The BoC is concerned that a rising currency will hurt export demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 overnight as expected. The RBA also added in its statement that its tight monetary policy should help to curb inflation. This news helped to limited gains in the AUD USD as traders believe it sends a signal that interest rate hikes may level off. Stronger demand for higher yielding assets was the main reason for the rise in the Aussie. The key price to watch is .9322. A break through this level turns the main trend up. The inability to follow-through to the upside could trigger a break back to .9108.

The NZD USD posted a strong gain on Tuesday. Demand for higher yielding assets and oversold technical conditions were the main forces driving this currency higher today. The chart pattern suggests that the way of least resistance is up following a nine-day slide. The first objective of .7272 was reached earlier this morning. The next upside target is .7332. A lack of follow-through to the upside could trigger a break back to .7157.

DISCLAIMER: Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from B.I.G. Forex, LLC and Brewer Investment Group, LLC or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

South Korea’s Exports Up, But Future Looks Murky

Year-over-year exports from South Korea rose for the first time in 13 months amid higher shipments to two of the world’s largest economies. However, future sustainability of the export-based economy is made uncertain by questions surrounding the removal of global stimulus measures.

Overall shipments rose 18.8% to $34.3 billion in the first 20 days of November, Korea’s Ministry of Knowledge Economy said yesterday (Tuesday). Roughly one-third of shipments were to the stimulus-backed economies of China and the United States, where exports increased by 52% and 6.1%, respectively.

Fading global stimulus measures will be the main worry for Korean exports,” said Park Sang-Hyun, chief economist at Hi Investment & Securities Co. Ltd. “The rising won is also a concern.”

The median estimate of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a rise of 22.8%.

Korea was up against a month last year in which exports practically collapsed when consumers shut their wallets as the recession was exacerbated by the banking crisis that sent world markets spiraling. One year later, stimulus efforts in emerging and developed economies have helped markets recover and created marginal demand in categories like automobiles and housing.

Poor year-ago export numbers are expected to help Korea clear a low bar in the coming months, several economists say. But the data from November is below the nation’s September shipments, and this is a time when exports typically rise with increased demand for the holidays.

“Demand from developed countries is seen slowing down as governments are withdrawing stimulus spending,” said Hi’s Park.  “Black Friday sales were quite disappointing, and car sales are expected to fall once incentives are no longer provided. A recovery in demand will be very slow.”

The U.S. government’s “Cash for Clunkers” auto incentive ended in August, resulting in a 14.3% drop in September’s auto sales. However, car sales in October bounced back sharply, rising 7.4%. In China, a sales tax break on small cars is in effect until the end of the year and could be extended.

Consumer spending in the United States continues to remain on shaky ground as the unemployment rate continues to rise, with most economists not seeing a bottom until some time in the first or second quarter of next year.

As uncertainty about Korea’s near-term exports looms, its central bank said Monday its own stimulus policies are still needed.

“Since the global economy is unlikely to post a strong recovery, policy efforts by the government and central bank are needed,” said Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Kim Jae-chun.

Despite this uncertainty, the chances of a double-dip recession are slim, Kim says, adding that it would take another meltdown in the financial markets or a failure of the private sector to recover on its own.