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2009-07-04

A Clear Picture On The US Debt Situation

With all of the rhetoric, obfuscation, and spin coming out of Washington these days, some might find it hard to see just where our current policies are leading us. One look at the following chart of federal receipts, outlays, and borrowing, however, and the facts seem pretty clear.

Deficit

Put that together with the following report from the Associated Press, “Mountain of Debt: Rising Debt May Be Next Crisis,” and it makes you wonder whether this year’s July 4th holiday should really be a time for celebration.

The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It’s the national debt.

The country first got into debt to help pay for the Revolutionary War. Growing ever since, the debt stands today at a staggering $11.5 trillion - equivalent to over $37,000 for each and every American. And it’s expanding by over $1 trillion a year.

The mountain of debt easily could become the next full-fledged economic crisis without firm action from Washington, economists of all stripes warn.

“Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told Congress.

Higher taxes, or reduced federal benefits and services - or a combination of both - may be the inevitable consequences.

The debt is complicating efforts by President Barack Obama and Congress to cope with the worst recession in decades as stimulus and bailout spending combine with lower tax revenues to widen the gap.

Interest payments on the debt alone cost $452 billion last year - the largest federal spending category after Medicare-Medicaid, Social Security and defense. It’s quickly crowding out all other government spending. And the Treasury is finding it harder to find new lenders.

The United States went into the red the first time in 1790 when it assumed $75 million in the war debts of the Continental Congress.

Alexander Hamilton, the first treasury secretary, said, “A national debt, if not excessive, will be to us a national blessing.”

Some blessing.

Since then, the nation has only been free of debt once, in 1834-1835.

The national debt has expanded during times of war and usually contracted in times of peace, while staying on a generally upward trajectory. Over the past several decades, it has climbed sharply - except for a respite from 1998 to 2000, when there were annual budget surpluses, reflecting in large part what turned out to be an overheated economy.

The debt soared with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and economic stimulus spending under President George W. Bush and now Obama.

The odometer-style “debt clock” near Times Square - put in place in 1989 when the debt was a mere $2.7 trillion - ran out of numbers and had to be shut down when the debt surged past $10 trillion in 2008.

The clock has since been refurbished so higher numbers fit. There are several debt clocks on Web sites maintained by public interest groups that let you watch hundreds, thousands, millions zip by in a matter of seconds.

The debt gap is “something that keeps me awake at night,” Obama says.

He pledged to cut the budget “deficit” roughly in half by the end of his first term. But “deficit” just means the difference between government receipts and spending in a single budget year.

This year’s deficit is now estimated at about $1.85 trillion.

Deficits don’t reflect holdover indebtedness from previous years. Some spending items - such as emergency appropriations bills and receipts in the Social Security program - aren’t included, either, although they are part of the national debt.

The national debt is a broader, and more telling, way to look at the government’s balance sheets than glancing at deficits.

According to the Treasury Department, which updates the number “to the penny” every few days, the national debt was $11,518,472,742,288 on Wednesday.

The overall debt is now slightly over 80 percent of the annual output of the entire U.S. economy, as measured by the gross domestic product.

By historical standards, it’s not proportionately as high as during World War II, when it briefly rose to 120 percent of GDP. But it’s still a huge liability.

Also, the United States is not the only nation struggling under a huge national debt. Among major countries, Japan, Italy, India, France, Germany and Canada have comparable debts as percentages of their GDPs.

Where does the government borrow all this money from?

The debt is largely financed by the sale of Treasury bonds and bills. Even today, amid global economic turmoil, those still are seen as one of the world’s safest investments.

That’s one of the rare upsides of U.S. government borrowing.

Treasury securities are suitable for individual investors and popular with other countries, especially China, Japan and the Persian Gulf oil exporters, the three top foreign holders of U.S. debt.

But as the U.S. spends trillions to stabilize the recession-wracked economy, helping to force down the value of the dollar, the securities become less attractive as investments. Some major foreign lenders are already paring back on their purchases of U.S. bonds and other securities.

And if major holders of U.S. debt were to flee, it would send shock waves through the global economy - and sharply force up U.S. interest rates.

As time goes by, demographics suggest things will get worse before they get better, even after the recession ends, as more baby boomers retire and begin collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits.

While the president remains personally popular, polls show there is rising public concern over his handling of the economy and the government’s mushrooming debt - and what it might mean for future generations.

If things can’t be turned around, including establishing a more efficient health care system, “We are on an utterly unsustainable fiscal course,” said the White House budget director, Peter Orszag.

Some budget-restraint activists claim even the debt understates the nation’s true liabilities.

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation, established by a former commerce secretary and investment banker, argues that the $11.4 trillion debt figures does not take into account roughly $45 trillion in unlisted liabilities and unfunded retirement and health care commitments.

That would put the nation’s full obligations at $56 trillion, or roughly $184,000 per American, according to this calculation.

ETFs That May Be Affected By Clean Energy Bill

Last Friday, the House passed the Waxman-Markey Clean Energy Bill, in an effort to reduce the U.S. addiction to oil and adopt more clean energy practices. The bill is in the Senate, and if it passes, it could have a wide-ranging impact on certain exchange traded funds (ETFs).

The goal of the bill is to reduce carbon emissions while practicing clean energy techniques rather than rely on oil for most of our energy needs. According to Rober Kropp for Social Funds, Republican Senators are attacking the bill as a form of taxation that will pass intolerable costs to American taxpayers.

Key provisions of the bill include:

  • Requiring electric utilities to meet 20% of their electricity demand through renewable energy sources and energy efficiency by 2020.
  • Investing $190 billion in new clean energy technologies and energy efficiency.
  • Mandating new energy-saving standards for buildings, appliances and industry.
  • Introducing a federal cap-and-trade program to reduce carbon emissions by 17% by 2020 and more than 80% by 2050, compared to 2005 levels.
  • All of this must occur without passing the expense onto consumers.

The passage of this bill will open the door for a clean energy-focused economy while keeping our dependence on foreign oil to a minimum. The ETFs below are just an example, but there are a number of other funds that target specific alternative energy sectors, such as wind and solar power.

  • First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge ETF (QCLN: 13.724 -0.276 -1.97%)

  • PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio (PZD: 20.40 -0.5383 -2.57%)

  • Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX: 24.14 -0.48 -1.95%)

Expected Next 30-Day Volatility Is Still Well Above The Non-Crisis Level

One simple way to translate the VIX index (^VIX: 27.95 +1.73 +6.60%) into an easy to understand monthly implied volatility is employing the following equation:

Next Month Expected Volatility = VIX/100/sqrt(12)

The result simply says that over the 30-day period, the SP500 is expected to have a volatility of plus/minus a given percentage.

The following graph shows the historical next 30-day expected volatility from 1990 to 2009. This does reflect the change in VIX calculation method that was instituted in 2003.

The simple historical average of the 1-month expected volatility for last 19 years is at 5.827%. Rising above this level usually represents some kind of turmoil and crisis. Examples include:

1.  Gulf War in the early 90s.

2.  Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998

3.  2000 tech bubble burst

4.  Sep 11th terrorist attack

5. Inital subprime mortgage crisis

6. Collapse of Bear Stearns

7. Collapse of Lehman/AIG and the following financial and economic collapse

Thus, until the expected monthly volatility of the SP500 goes below its historical average of 5.827% for a sustained period of time, all we can say is that the market simply is taking a break from its primary trend.

I hear a lot of people are still expecting the SP500 to go to 1000 and above. I am not saying that is not a possibility but taking such a position at this point is fairly dangerous. We have to ask ourselves “Is the economic climate improved?” The answer is simply no. Deceleration of economic decline does not translate into economic improvement. I continue to remind people that the current recession has been over 18 months now surpassing all previous recessions and there is still no clear end in sight. If the economy does not pull itself out in the next 6-12 months, we are likely heading towards the 2nd Depression defined as a prolonged period of recession lasting more than two to three years.

America: Decline Or Revival?

As my American friends fire up the barbeque on this Independence Day weekend, I invite them (and my other readers) to ponder the long-term fate of America.

The end of Pax Americana?
The past few weeks has seen more bad news for American standing and influence. The Chinese are questioning the long-term supremacy of the US Dollar as reserve currency again:

Top officials, including Premier Wen Jiabao, have openly expressed concern about Chinese investment in the US. The country has also actively mooted the idea of a super sovereign reserve currency to replace the dollar.

Besides, it has also sought to promote the use of the yuan for foreign trade and investment; a first step, some think, toward challenging the dollar’s status as the preferred currency of international trade and capital flow.

Meanwhile, Econbrowser reports that the US continues to go into debt, as it moved from a net debtor in the 1980s to a deeply indebted position today.

Or revival?
On the other hand, John Mauldin recently posted a remarkably optimistic view of American revival, based on the work of Neil Howe [emphasis mine]:

The potentially good news…is that the Crisis we’re now entering will change pretty much everything. While this change will entail a great deal of pain and a reduced standard of living for a large number of people, by the time the Crisis subsides, society will have pretty much remade itself in ways that no one can predict at this point…

Neil Howe turns to his generational profiles and points out that the rising societal power today belongs to the generation he calls the Millennials, individuals born between 1982 and 2004. They are a “Hero” generation, just like the G.I. Generation that coped so well with the turmoil of the Great Depression and World War II — the last Fourth Turning. Coddled as children, the G.I.s were ultimately called upon to help society through a dark and dangerous period and rose to the occasion…

[These] periods have always resulted in the nation redefining who we are in some essential way. That was certainly the case during the American Revolution, when we transitioned from a British colony into a collection of independent states — and the Civil War, when those states were hammered into a single nation. And, again, after World War II, when the U.S. went from being a relatively isolated nation to a global empire. A wild card, for instance a terrorist nuke going off in a city anywhere on the planet, could similarly take the country, and the world, into unforeseeable new directions.

Of course, this optimistic view is highly dependent on America getting through the crisis intact.

A Singularity in history
Does America decline or will we see a new Renaissance?

I believe that we are approaching a Singularity, or a discontinuity, in history. All that we know is that we are approaching a Singularity but we cannot forecast what happens afterwards (that’s why it’s called a Singularity).

Consider the words of blogger Fabius Maximus, who wrote the following in February 2007, well before the onset of the current financial crisis, about the Singularity and the challenges that Americans face:

This transition will be like a singularity in astrophysics, a point where the rules breakdown - and beyond which we cannot see.

Such trials appear throughout history. Consider Russia in 1942. Ruled by a madman. Their government had betrayed the hopes of the revolution, killed tens of millions, and reduced the nation to poverty. Most of their generals were dead, their armies were in full retreat, and vast areas were controlled by a ruthless invader.

The mark of a great people is the ability to carry on when all is lost, including hope. We can learn much from the Russian people’s behavior in WWII.

For investors, such a scenario involves a high degree of market volatility and fat-tailed returns. Be prepared.

Hotel Metrics Down, Others Finally Catching On

The second quarter of 2009 proved to be even more challenging than the first for hotel companies in the United States. And as it becomes increasingly clear that a recovery in the industry isn’t likely to happen any time in the near term, others on Wall Street have begun to change their outlooks.

After declining 19.0% in the first quarter of the year, weekly average revenue per available room, or RevPAR, declined 20.1% in the second quarter. Looking at the composition of these numbers, however, we see that the damage to the businesses was even greater than the 110 basis point change.

Average weekly occupancy declined 11.6% in the second quarter, compared to a decline of 12.5% year-over-year in the first quarter. However, hoteliers began cutting room rates more substantially during the just-ended quarter, with Q2 average daily rate, or ADR, down 9.6% versus the year-ago period. In the first quarter, ADR was down 7.4% year-over-year.

By continuing to cut room rates in an attempt to fill rooms, we believe that the hotel operators are actually more likely to increase the length and severity of this downturn. Changes in ADR have a greater impact on profitability, as more of the change falls directly to the bottom line. In addition, hotel companies will likely have difficulty pushing room rates higher even after the economy has stabilized.

We have been negative on the lodging sector for months, as we have maintained that investors have been too optimistic regarding the chances for a second-half recovery in the group.

Earlier this week, an analyst at a major Wall Street brokerage firm lowered their outlook on the group to negative, and lowered their rating on shares of Starwood Hotels (HOT: 20.90 -0.41 -1.92%) and Marriott International (MAR: 20.39 -0.79 -3.73%) to Underweight.

We have had Sell ratings on these shares for some time, and as we recently noted, the shares have begun to pull back after rallying along with the broad market for approximately three months.

As the challenges facing the group going forward become more obvious, we anticipate that more investors will realize that a near-term recovery in operating fundamentals is highly unlikely. As a result, we expect to see more pressure on the shares of lodging companies in the coming months.

 

Silver Response to Inflation and Deflation the United States

The following is an excerpt from the March issue of The Morgan Report. This followed a lengthy discussion of how silver and gold both performed during inflationary and deflationary periods. Most of what I wrote was based upon the work of Roy Jastram and his work on Silver the Restless Metal and the Golden Constant.

Excerpt starts here…

Since 1800, the U.S. has had more years of inflation than deflation, 92 versus 53. The record for the two precious metals is remarkably similar. Both lost purchasing power in every inflation in the United States until the last period mentioned, 1951 to 1979, where silver out-performed gold. What adds interest to this similarity is that silver was effectively demonetized in 1834, whereas the gold standard prevailed a century longer. It is true that the U.S. Congress was fiddling with the silver market from 1807 through 1920, but the effect was to put a floor under the silver price, with the gold price being strictly set. And from 1933 until 1975, U.S. citizens could not buy gold.

However, precious metals have a long-standing reputation as hedges against inflation. Jastram writes, “This is not valid based on evidence of a century and a half in the United States and more than three centuries in England. The truth is, in most cases, the two metals, yes, both silver and gold, gained operational wealth in deflations.” From a long-term perspective, gold has held its purchasing power very well in the United States.

The long-term view of silver is different. Silver did fairly well, relative to gold, until 1890. After that, the purchasing power has been erratic. At times, silver’s performed poorly, compared to gold, until the last period mentioned in Jastram’s book, where the silver outperformed the gold by a very wide margin. However, we must be cautious here because so much of the upward move in both gold and silver took place in such a small timeframe.

Before moving from this historical study, I wish to mention a few other items the good professor was able to forecast. Chapter 5 is titled “Silver’s Industrial Revolution.” Jastram recognized that silver was to be a high-tech metal required by industry. I think even he would be astounded to learn that during the past ten years, silver’s use in industry has gone from roughly 35% of the entire annual production in silver, to greater than 50%. Not only that, but it is the fastest growing area of the silver market. The lithium ion battery for laptops will have a competitor and that is the Z power silver zinc battery that I’ve mentioned in other reports.

Apple Computer will be the first company to announce using this new battery. Silver’s use as a biocide continues to grow, being used in washing machines, refrigerators, and a host of other water purification systems, on both an individual and a municipal level. The supply side of silver is likely to decrease from 2009 to 2010, as base metals production will decline during this deflationary environment. As we all know, about 75% of silver is a result of base metal mining. Time and time again, the evidence is clearer and the facts are that silver is absolutely crucial to our way of life. However, it still remains the metal least understood by most of the world.

Now, we must look into the future. Indeed, the future is more uncertain at this point than at any point during my lifetime. My original intent in doing this study was to extrapolate the data so carefully laid by Professor Jastram, and lead you to a very solid conclusion. It is my determination that this cannot be done, because, in most of his study, the metals retain a monetary component, either officially or unofficially. Even the coinage in the United States was silver through 1964. So, I took a step back and evaluated the facts that we do know.

Presently, we have the deflationist Robert Prechter being the best known, and to this audience, perhaps, Ian Gordon or Bob Hoye, but even in this Canadian structure and in these camps, we have different signals. Prechter claims gold is topped and would be a bad investment during the ensuing depression, whereas both Ian Gordon and Bob Hoye extol the virtues of gold and gold only as the place to be during a deflationary period. Certainly, gold stocks play an important part in both of their analyses and, of course, gold stocks, as I’m writing this in February of 2009, really have under-performed the metal.

Gold has maintained. But so far, gold stocks have done poorly and the credit crisis continues taking its effect on the stock market. Silver has not kept up with gold, but has fared better than any of the base metals, thus acting, in my view, as silver would be expected to at this point in time—not as good as gold, but better than anything else in the metals category—showing once again the dual nature of silver being both an industrial and precious metal asset.

My view as to where we are heading actually supersedes both inflation and deflation. My very studied observation is that we are in what Robert Prechter refers to as a grand super cycle. However, my view is that we are at the tail end of the destruction of a currency and these events only take place every 200 to 300 years. This is crucial to know.

As stated in one of my early reports, a hyperinflation is not a function of the amount of money printed. If that were the case, we have more than enough money now to see a destruction in the United States currency. No, it’s a function of confidence and monetary velocity. I believe that over the next year, we’re probably going to see a rally into probably mid March, perhaps as long as into mid April 2009, and then I believe that the deflationary forces are going to be so overwhelming that the only good place to invest will be in cash or just keep accumulating metals and mining stocks on the dollar cost average basis. In other words, accumulate positions slowly over time rather than rush in and try to pick a bottom.

It’s not out of my realm of thinking, but we might see gold touch the major uptrend line before the bull market resumes. That would not invalidate a bull market in gold, it would only confirm it, but it could go lower than it is presently and still maintain a bull market. In fact, most major secular bull markets do test the major uptrend line at least once. Silver has already done this. It has touched the major uptrend line; whether it comes back and we test it or not remains to be seen. It would not be outside of my thinking that it’s actually done it already, preceding gold doing it, and it may not get down into the 880 level or whatever. But, again, the market knows more than any of us.

So, to re-emphasize my conclusion, we are in very, very interesting times and I do believe that the deflationary scenario does have merit at this time but, again, it’s way beyond that. We’re looking at a destruction of the currency. We’re looking at the United States dollar no longer being the reserve currency of the world. In other words, simply stated, we’re looking at a currency crisis.

During a currency crisis, the one thing that you don’t want is the currency that’s being destroyed, which is the United States dollar; you need an alternative currency. The only alternative currencies that I know of that have held up well are, of course, gold and silver. I do believe you need both. I do believe that I could certainly be wrong. Perhaps there’ll be some miracle cure here. I really doubt it, but you don’t need much more than a 10% or 20% protection in order to be well protected if things break down quite substantially for you to come out of this in very, very good condition.

On the other hand, I know many of you are what I call metal heads, like me, and you prefer a higher weighting than that; of course, that’s your personal choice. I’m not going to advocate much more than, say, 20% for most people. There will be a day, in my view, probably in the 2010 to 2012 timeframe, where the dollar just gets to a position where people don’t want it, not only on an international basis with our trading partners, which is already showing up, but also on an individual basis. And this is where you’ve got to be very careful to see what’s going on.

There will be a time when people decide that they’d rather purchase something that’s a hard good that can be stored and maybe bartered later, rather than hold the currency. Again, I don’t think we’re going to see that this year. I think 2009 will be mostly a deflationary year; 2010 is when I expect all of this monetary stimulus and printing of money will work itself into the economy. By that timeframe, it’ll start manifesting in huge increases in inflation. However, it could take off at any time and I’m well aware of that. I do have key indicators that we watch and keep watching. 

It is an honor to be.

Sincerely,

Is Still More Economic Stimulus Needed?

It hasn’t been a good week for Wall Street’s ‘green shoots’ analogy. This week’s economic reports looked more like crop-killer than fertilizer, certainly not providing much support for the current popular wisdom that consumers will soon be spending us out of the recession.

I have said from the beginning that consumer spending will not pick up to any degree until consumers are no longer seeing the value of their homes plunging; are no longer seeing neighbors lose their homes to foreclosure; begin to see ‘For Sales’ signs thinning out as homes begin selling; and no longer have fear of losing their jobs. Only then might they stop saving and paying down debt out of concern, and begin spending again to a degree that will have the recession bottoming.

That is, the problems began in the real estate industry and spread into the rest of the economy, and the eventual recovery will have to begin in the real estate industry.

But it is not happening.

Instead consumers are seeing their housing worries worsen even as more problems come at them from all directions, including banks refusing to make loans; credit-card issuers raising interest rates on unpaid balances; and gasoline prices surging.

This week’s economic reports, at the midway point of the year in which Wall Street says the economy will be picking up in the second half, will not raise their confidence.

The rain actually began to fall on the ‘Feel-Good’ parade last week, when Warren Buffett, who has been out on the interview circuit for the last year spouting bullish and confident remarks about the economy and stock market, seemed to abruptly reverse course. Perhaps it’s realization that his previous pronouncements have not worked out so well. He suffered unusually large losses last year, and is down significantly again so far this year.

In an interview on Bloomberg TV last week he painted a very gloomy picture, saying “Things will continue to get worse before they get better . . . . . . . It looks like we’re going to need more medicine [more stimulus from the government], not less. . . . . We’re going to have more unemployment. The recovery hasn’t gotten going [from the stimulus efforts so far].”

This week’s economic reports have a growing number of analysts and economists expressing the same opinion, that still more stimulus will be needed.
Among the week’s reports, which for the most part were the first look at how the economy performed in June:

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for June declined to 49.3 from 54.8 in May.

It was reported that mortgage applications were down 18.9% last week.

The Institute for Supply Management reported its ISM Mfg Index ticked up to 44.8% in June from 42.8% in May. But it was a faint ray of hope, as it fell short of forecasts that it would rise to 45.6%, and any number below 50 indicates manufacturing is still slowing.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported home prices fell another 0.6% in April, and have declined 33% from their peak in 2006.

The National Association of Realtors reported its Pending Home Sales Index rose a hardly discernible 0.1% in May. And ‘pending’ home sales are quite different from actual home sales, because they are based on sales contracts that have been signed, some of which will be cancelled, and some of which will not close because the buyers will not obtain financing.

The ADP Employment Report showed another 473,000 jobs were lost in June, considerably more than had been forecast.

Auto sales for June were reported and were dismal; Ford sales down 10.9%; General Motors -33.6%; Chrysler -42%; BMW -20.3%; Honda -29.5%; Nissan -23%; Porsche -66%; Toyota -32%; and Volkswagen reported sales down 18%.

The worst punch to the gut of consumer confidence, and the hope that the second half of the year will see recovery, came with the Labor Department’s Employment Report on Thursday, which showed 457,000 jobs were lost in June. That was considerably higher than the 350,000 forecast, and was a considerably faster pace of losses than May’s 322,000 jobs lost.

The news this week certainly blunted the popular talk that the recession is already bottoming, instead stimulating opinions that yet another stimulus package will be needed to halt the economy’s slide.

The question for investors is whether the stock market will finally realize it has gotten significantly ahead of reality by factoring into prices that good times are right around the corner.

In February I predicted one of the biggest bear market rallies ever would begin at any time off the market’s very oversold condition and investors’ extreme bearish sentiment and fear; that temporary improvement in economic reports would be the fuel; but that significant profits would be available from the downside again in the market’s unfavorable summer season. The rally has lasted longer than I expected, but I’ve seen nothing to change my original expectations.

U.S. Unemployment Soars Whilst Fed Funnels More Cash to the Banksters

Employment situation takes a turn for the worse

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Job losses were widespread across the major industry sectors, with large declines occurring in manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction.

The report showed that hourly earnings stagnated, offering little evidence the Obama administration’s stimulus package is shoring up the labor market.  The payroll decline was more than forecast and followed a 322,000 drop in May, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 9.5 percent, the highest since August 1983, from 9.4 percent.

The CES Birth/Death Model added 185,000 hypothetical jobs to the payrolls counted by the Department of Labor in June.  I wonder what the true unemployment numbers really are, since the CES model has added 879,000 fictitious jobs since February. 

I…O…U!

The finances of several states around the nation are sinking deeper into chaos as lawmakers struggle to work out budget differences amid a recession that has wiped out tax revenue and set the stage for dramatic cuts in service and pay for government workers.

The start of the new fiscal year arrived Wednesday with states from California to Connecticut still without spending plans in place.  Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency and ordered state offices closed three days a month to save money as state officials plan to pay bills with IOUs starting Thursday.

Houston, we have a problem!

SPX.png --U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a third straight weekly drop, as a worse-than-projected decrease in jobs added to concern that rising unemployment will prolong the recession.  The S&P 500 has slumped 3.7 percent since June 12 on concern the 40 percent, three-month surge in the index outpaced prospects for a recovery in the economy and corporate profits.  Next week launches earnings reports, which will reveal the extent to which hope may have overtaken reality. 

 

 

 

Treasury bonds gain as alternative investments slip.

Bonds.png-- Treasuries gained after a government report showed the U.S. economy lost more jobs than forecast in June, fueling speculation that rising unemployment will prolong the worst recession in a half-century.   The employment data supports that assertion and will likely allow policy makers to keep the borrowing rates lower for longer. Traders decreased odds that the central bank will tighten, predicting a 26 percent probability that officials will increase rates by November, down from 67 percent after last month’s jobs report.  

 

 

 

 Gold losing traction.

Gold.pngGold fell below $930 (U.S.) per ounce on Thursday as the U.S. dollar rose versus a basket of currencies after a larger than expected dip in U.S. non-farm payrolls, which prompted some buying of the currency as a haven from risk.   “Today's payrolls surprised most market expectations, and the dollar rose as a result,” said Pradeep Unni, senior analyst at Richcomm Global Services. “However, the data is not likely to have a long term impact on the (gold) market.”  The sell-off in gold today was triggered by selling in the currency and stock markets.

 

 

 

The Nikkei sees deterioration in the trend.

Nikkei.png-- Japanese stocks dropped for a second day, led by banks as concern a merger will fail to produce a stronger lender drove down Aozora Bank Ltd. and Shinsei Bank Ltd. Oil producers fell on lower crude prices. The pattern in the Nikkei is similar to the S&P 500 index, which show how closely linked the two economies are.  It may be safe to say that things may deteriorate from here, since the U.S. employment number took another hit today.

 

 

 

 

While China seems unstoppable.

Shanghai Index.png-- China’s  stocks rose, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to its biggest gain in a month, as signs the world’s third-largest economy is recovering spurred optimism that demand for energy and raw materials will increase.      “Resources stocks act as a proxy to China’s recovery story,” said Wang Zheng, a fund manager at Jingxi Investment Management Co. in Shanghai. “It looks like the market needs a correction now as valuations are expensive and expectations about the economic recovery have been priced in.”

 

 

 

Oh, nevermind!

US Dollar.png-- The dollar strengthened after a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said he hoped the greenback would remain stable and was “not aware” of a plan to discuss a new reserve currency at next week’s Group of Eight meeting.   The dollar climbed from a three-week low versus the euro after falling yesterday when Reuters reported that China had asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at the G-8 summit in Italy.

 

 

 

Foreclosures are going upscale.

Housing Index.pngNewfound signs of stability in the housing market could still be threatened by rising foreclosures and slow efforts to stop them, according to two reports released Tuesday.The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of 20 major cities showed the smallest monthly decline since June 2008. The index tumbled by 18 percent in April from the year before, but for the third month in a row it was not a record decline.  Here’s a view of the index.  However, Mish reports that prime mortgages are now increasingly at risk.

 

 

 

It looks like a break in the price of gasoline.

Gasoline.pngEnergy Information Administration Weekly Report suggests that, “Heading into the 4th of July weekend, U.S. drivers are understandably concerned about gasoline prices, which have risen by more than $1 per gallon so far in 2009, and by nearly 60 cents per gallon since the beginning of May. On the other hand, gasoline prices remain well below last summer’s record levels, and actually posted a decrease in the past week. Have we already seen the worst for this year?”

 

 

 

Ample supply and a slow economy keeps prices down.

Natural Gas.pngThe Energy Information Agency’s Natural Gas Weekly Update reports, “Almost on cue with the official start of summer this week, temperatures in the southern and middle parts of the country soared, likely boosting air-conditioning demand. Although cooling demand represents a major consumption segment in the natural gas industry, in the past week higher demand from electric generation companies seems to have only limited declines in prices. Concerns over the state of the economy and ample supplies continued to dominate the pricing environment.” 

 

Can China's Economy Prosper Without the U.S. Dollar?

China ’s announcement overnight that it will allow companies to settle international trade claims in yuan shows how serious the Chinese authorities are about building a local currency market.
China will allow companies to use the yuan to settle cross-border trade and let them keep their entitlement to export tax rebates, seeking to reduce the reliance of importers and exporters on the U.S. dollar.

The People’s Bank of China will encourage banks to offer yuan settlement services from today, the bank said in the regulations published on its Web site. Transactions inside China will take place in Shanghai and four cities in southern Guangdong province, including Guangzhou and Shenzhen, while those outside China will occur in Hong Kong, Macau and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, it said.

“It’s China’s first step to make the yuan global,” said Shi Lei, an analyst in Beijing at Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s largest foreign-currency trader. “It will protect exporters from swings in exchange rates and boost the yuan’s role in the world currency system.”

China is promoting greater use of the yuan in international trade and finance after Premier Wen Jiabao in March expressed concern that a weakening dollar will cause losses on the country’s holdings of U.S. assets. A Chinese Foreign Ministry official said today he hoped the U.S. currency would remain stable, while reiterating a call for diversification of the international monetary system, Bloomberg reports.

“Companies in China and neighboring countries are facing relatively huge risks of exchange-rate fluctuations because of big swings in the U.S. dollar, the euro and other major settlement currencies,” today’s central bank statement said.

Implied volatility has fallen from nearly 40% at the end of 2008 to around 12% at present. That doesn’t look like an immediate prospect of “relative hulge risks of exchange-rate fluctuations,” as the People’s Bank of China said today.

China clearly is talking about something else. In my June 30 “Spengler” column for Asia Times Online I warned that US foreign policy and economic policy both are subject to catastrophic failure:

The last thing China wants at the moment is to undercut the US dollar, for three reasons. First, as America’s largest creditor, China has the most to lose from a dollar collapse. Second, Americans would buy fewer Chinese imports. And third, the collapse of the dollar would further erode America’s will to fulfill its superpower function, and that is what China wants least of all.

America remains the indispensable outsider in Asia. No one likes the United States, but everyone dislikes the United States less than they dislike their neighbors. India need not worry about China’s role in Pakistan, for example, because America mediates Indian-Pakistani relations, and America has no interest in a radical change to the status quo. Neither does China, for that matter, but India is less sure of that. China does not trust Japan for historical reasons that will not quickly fade, but need not worry about it because America is the guarantor of Japan’s security. The Seventh Fleet is the most disliked - and nonetheless the most welcome - entity in Asia.

All of this may change drastically, quickly, and for the worse.

If the US economy fails to recover and China has no choice but to develop its internal market, than it will have to finance the internal market in local currency and do everything possible to give it regional and perhaps global status. If other countries in the region re-orient their exports away from the US and to the Chinese (and related) internal market, they will tend to link their currencies to the yuan. This might lead to a regional currency arrangement which well might be commodity based.

Current Recession Is a Severe Credit Bust of Depression-Era Magnitude

There's a big difference between inventory-driven recessions and credit-driven recessions. An inventory recession is caused by a mismatch between supply and demand. It's the result of overcapacity and under-utilization which can only work itself out over time as inventories are pared back and demand builds. Credit-driven recessions are a different story altogether. They typically last twice as long as and can precipitate financial crises. The current recession is a severe credit bust of Depression-era magnitude.
The financial system has effectively melted down. The wholesale credit system (securitization) is frozen, the banking system is dysfunctional and insolvent, and consumer spending has tanked. The Fed's multi-trillion dollar lending facilities and monetary stimulus have kept the financial system from grinding to a halt, but the underlying problems still persist. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has chosen to avoid the hard decisions and keep the price of toxic assets artificially high with the help of a $12.8 trillion liquidity backstop. That's why stocks have rallied for the last 4 months while conditions in the real economy have steadily deteriorated. Bernanke is using all the tools at his disposal to keep the market from clearing and prevent the mountain of debt that has built up over decades from being purged from the system. Unfortunately, as Ludwig von Mises said, "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought on by credit expansion."

The surging stock market has made it harder to see that the economy is resetting at a lower rate of economic activity. Deflation is setting in across all sectors. Housing prices are leading the retreat, falling 18.1 percent year-over-year according to the new Case-Schiller report. Vanishing home equity is forcing households to slash spending which is weakening demand and triggering more layoffs. It's a vicious circle which ends in slower growth.

Also, the banking system is still broken. The $700 billion TARP program was not used to purchase toxic assets, but to buy equity stakes in the banks and to bailout insurance giant AIG. Bernanke knows that a hobbled banking system will be a constant drain on public resources, but he refuses to nationalize the banks or restructure their debt. Instead, he's expanded the Fed's balance sheet by $1.2 trillion and ignited a rally in the stock market. Bernanke's bear market rally has lifted the financials from the doldrums and generated the capital the banks need to survive the downgrading of their bad assets. Former Fed-chief Alan Greenspan (unintentionally) clarified this point in an editorial in the Financial Times :

  "The rise in global stock prices from early March to mid-June is arguably the primary cause of the surprising positive turn in the economic environment. The $12,000bn of newly created corporate equity value has added significantly to the capital buffer that supports the debt issued by financial and non-financial companies.... Previously capital-strapped companies have been able to raise considerable debt and equity in recent months. Market fears of bank insolvency, particularly, have been assuaged.

Global stock markets have rallied so far and so fast this year that it is difficult to imagine they can proceed further at anywhere near their recent pace. But what if, after a correction, they proceeded inexorably higher? That would bolster global balance sheets with large amounts of new equity value and supply banks with the new capital that would allow them to step up lending.
(Alan Greenspan, "Inflation, The real threat to a sustained recovery", Financial Times)

Clearly, Bernanke was thinking along the same lines as Greenspan when he decided to push traders back into the market with his generous liquidity programs and quantitative easing (QE). He probably realized that political support for more bailouts had waned and that "large amounts of new equity" ( Greenspan's words) would be needed to keep the banks from defaulting. Whatever his motives may have been, Bernanke's stimulus has turbo-charged equities while the real economy continues to sputter.

Jordan Irving, who helps manage more than $110 billion at Delaware Investments in Philadelphia told Bloomberg News, “This has been a government-induced rally. We need to see some real positives coming from internal demand, as opposed to government-related demand, and it’s just not there.”

Still, the Fed's intervention in the markets hasn't removed the threat posed by toxic assets; a problem which only gets worse over time. That's why The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) issued a report last week warning of the "perils" of not tackling the issue head-on. Here's an excerpt from the report:

    "... Despite months of co-ordinated action around the globe to stabilize the banking system, hidden perils still lurk in the world's financial institutions according to the Basel-based Bank of International Settlements.

    "Overall, governments may not have acted quickly enough to remove problem assets from the balance sheets of key banks," the BIS says in its annual report. "At the same time, government guarantees and asset insurance have exposed taxpayers to potentially large losses."

    ... As one of the few bodies consistently sounding the alarm about the build-up of risky financial assets and under-capitalized banks in the run-up to the credit crisis, the BIS's assessment will carry weight with governments. It says: "The lack of progress threatens to prolong the crisis and delay the recovery because a dysfunctional financial system reduces the ability of monetary and fiscal actions to stimulate the economy."
(UK Guardian, Recovery threatened by toxic assets still hidden in key banks ) 

 The toxic assets problem is further compounded by an estimated $2 trillion of additional losses from defaulting residential mortgages, commercial real-estate loans, credit card loans, and auto loans. It's is the double-whammy; a fetid portfolio of non-performing loans and garbage mortgage-backed derivatives.  At the same time, personal consumption has fallen sharply and the signs of economic contraction are visible everywhere, from the bulging homeless shelters, to the long-lines at the unemployment offices, to the empty state coffers, to the half-filled shopping carts at the grocery store. Unemployment is rising at 600,000 per month, consumer confidence is at record lows, retail sales have fallen sharply, and housing continues its historic plunge. The data is clear; there are no green shoots or silver linings. Billionaire Warren Buffett summed it up like this in an interview with CNBC this week:

  "I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily.  Everything that I see about the economy is that we've had no bounce.  The financial system was really where the crisis was last September and October, and that's been surmounted and that's enormously important.   But in terms of the economy coming back, it takes a while.... I said the economy would be in a shambles this year and probably well beyond.  I'm afraid that's true."

  The best snapshot of the economy appeared in the Fed's Beige Book, which was released two weeks ago, but was barely covered in the financial media. The report gives a candid assessment of an economy that is in deep distress. Here's an excerpt:

      "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve District Banks indicate that economic conditions remained weak or deteriorated further during the period from mid-April through May...Manufacturing activity declined or remained at a low level across most Districts.... Demand for nonfinancial services contracted across Districts reporting on this segment. Retail spending remained soft as consumers focused on purchasing less expensive necessities and shied away from buying luxury goods. New car purchases remained depressed, with several Districts indicating that tight credit conditions were hampering auto sales. Travel and tourism activity also declined....Vacancy rates for commercial properties were rising in many parts of the country... Credit conditions remained stringent or tightened further. Energy activity continued to weaken across most Districts, and demand for natural resources remained depressed.... Labor market conditions continued to be weak across the country, with wages generally remaining flat or falling....Districts reporting on nonfinancial services indicated that for the most part activity continued to decline.... Activity continued to weaken or remain soft for providers of professional services such as accounting, architecture, business consulting, and legal services....Consumer spending remained soft as households focused on purchasing less expensive necessities. ...Travel and tourism activity declined, and vacationers are tending to spend less....

Commercial real estate markets continued to weaken across all Districts. ...With few exceptions, the District Banks reported that prices at all stages of production were generally flat or falling...Reports from a number of Districts indicated that pricing at retail remains very soft..."
(Fed's Beige Book)

It's all bad. 

The financial meltdown has left homeowners with the worst debt-to-income ratio in history. Working people have been forced to cut discretionary spending and begin to save. The household savings rate zoomed to 6.9 percent in May, a 15-year high. The rate in April 2008 was zero."

The downside of the rising savings rate, is that it will deepen and prolong the recession. The negligible increase in retail spending can be attributed to fiscal stimulus. Without the government checkbook, the economy will continue to struggle.

There's been a sudden shift from debt-fueled consumption to thriftiness. The trauma of losing one's job, health care or home; or simply living one paycheck away from disaster will probably shape attitudes for years to come. Personal savings will continue to swell as households build a bigger nest egg to weather the slump and make up for lost equity, droopy retirement accounts, and the possibility of losing their job.  This fundamental change in consumer behavior points to less economic activity, more inventory reduction, additional layoffs, and smaller corporate profits. When consumers save, the economy contracts. Rob Parenteau, editor of the Richebacher Letter, sums it up like this:

"We have never seen households retire debt like this, now in three of the past four quarters, over more than a half century of results reported in the Flow of Funds accounts....("Q1 2009 Flow of Funds results show the housing sector ran a net saving position of $341b in the past quarter, while paying down $155b in household debt)

  ....the widespread perception is that the old global growth model, dependent in no small part on the willingness of US consumers to deepen their deficit spending, can and will be revived. We would merely suggest with the level of household net worth to disposable income back to a level last seen in 1995 (before household deficit spending began), and with households extinguishing debt for the first time in over half a century, this assumption deserves to be questioned. Humpty Dumpty may not be able to be put together again."
("What is Different this Time?", Rob Parenteau, editor of the Richebacher Letter, and a research assistant with the Levy Institute of Economics, naked capitalism.com)

Consumer spending is 70% of GDP, but consumers have suddenly stepped on the brakes. This is a real game-changer. Even if the credit markets are restored and the banks show a greater willingness to lend; there will be no return to the pre-crisis consumption-levels of the past. Those days are over. Households will have to devote more income to paying down debt and less on shopping, travel or nights-on-the-town. That means the Obama team will have to make up the slack in demand by providing more fiscal stimulus, jobs programs, state aid, and other forms of public relief. It's the only way to keep the economy from sliding deeper into depression. And, don't expect past consumption trends to predict the future. It's a whole new ballgame. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco explains the roots of the problem in their "Economic Letter: US Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth". Here's an extended excerpt:

  "U.S. household leverage, as measured by the ratio of debt to personal disposable income, increased modestly from 55% in 1960 to 65% by the mid-1980s. Then, over the next two decades, leverage proceeded to more than double, reaching an all-time high of 133% in 2007. That dramatic rise in debt was accompanied by a steady decline in the personal saving rate. The combination of higher debt and lower saving enabled personal consumption expenditures to grow faster than disposable income, providing a significant boost to U.S. economic growth over the period.

In the long-run, however, consumption cannot grow faster than income because there is an upper limit to how much debt households can service, based on their incomes. For many U.S. households, current debt levels appear too high, as evidenced by the sharp rise in delinquencies and foreclosures in recent years. To achieve a sustainable level of debt relative to income, households may need to undergo a prolonged period of deleveraging, whereby debt is reduced and saving is increased.

Beginning in 2000, however, the pace of debt accumulation accelerated dramatically...Rising debt levels were accompanied by rising wealth. An influx of new and often speculative homebuyers with access to easy credit helped bid up prices to unprecedented levels relative to fundamentals, as measured by rents or disposable income. Equity extracted from rapidly appreciating home values provided hundreds of billions of dollars per year in spendable cash for households that was used to pay for a variety of goods and services....Rapid debt growth allowed consumption to grow faster than income.

Since the start of the U.S. recession in December 2007, household leverage has declined. It currently stands at about 130% of disposable income. How much further will the deleveraging process go?

Going forward, it seems probable that many U.S. households will reduce their debt. If accomplished through increased saving, the deleveraging process could result in a substantial and prolonged slowdown in consumer spending relative to pre-recession growth rates.
("U.S. Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth, by Reuven Glick and Kevin J. Lansing, FRBSF Economic Letter")

Household wealth has slipped $14 trillion since the crisis began. This includes sizable losses in investments, real estate and retirement funds. Home equity has dropped to 41% (a new low) and joblessness is on the rise. When credit was easy; borrowing increased, assets prices rose and the economy grew. Now the process has gone into reverse; credit has dried up, collateral values have plunged, GDP is negative, and consumers are buried under a mountain of debt. Personal bankruptcies, defaults and foreclosures are all up. Deflation is everywhere. It will take years, perhaps a decade or more, to rebuild household balance sheets and restore the flagging economy. The consumer is running on empty and the chances of a robust recovery are nil.

The Smart Grid Will Offer Exceptional Investing Opportunities

With the likely passage of the “Cap and trade” bill, many people are excited that renewable energy is set for further growth. Investments in wind turbines, solar panels, biomass, and capturing the power of ocean waves continue to interest investors. All of these technologies generate electrical power with minimal carbon emissions. Other investors are looking for ways to benefit from a cap and trade system.

The design of the U.S. transmission and distribution system is a century old. This old grid system is designed to distribute electrical power from consistent generation facilities that are close by. Building large wind farms in West Texas still require ways to move that power to urban areas that need it. Moreover, what happens when the wind stops blowing during the hottest days of the summer? Our current electrical grid system is ill suited to handle the variability of new sources of electrical power.

Solving the transition to new power sources is half the battle. After generating the power, you need to distribute it to where it is needed at the right time, in the right amounts and at a lower cost. The Smart Grid is the conceptual answer to the vast changes to adapt our current electrical system to one that is more efficient, adaptable, etc.

An interesting comparison can be made between our electrical grid and our communications network. If Alexander Graham Bell, the inventor of the telephone, were to come back today, he would not recognize the modern day communication system with its cell phones, internet, YouTube, twitter, and wireless communication. On the other hand, if Thomas Edison were to return, he would readily recognize our electrical transmission and distribution arrangement. For Thomas Edison was one of the grid’s earliest architects. While it has grown significantly, the basic design remains the same.

According to Cisco, the Smart Grid offers major investment opportunities that are bigger than the. Jeff Immelt, CEO of GE believes the Smart Grid will be the biggest investment of the first half of the 21st century. President Obama is counting on investments in the Smart Grid to help the United States release it from its dependence on foreign oil.

According to a 2009 report by the American Society of Civil Engineers, $2 trillion will need to be invested in our electric infrastructure by 2030. The Brattle Group estimates that it will take $1.5 trillion to between 2010 and 2030 to pay for the upgrades necessary for the additional infrastructure for tomorrow’s electrical system.

These investments will take place throughout the electrical grid, in the home, in buildings, on campuses, neighborhoods in cities and across continents. Already we are seeing a few of these improvements. Some homes are being fitted with smart meters that track electricity use in detail. This data is sent to the utilities to help them manage electricity demand and supply. Eventually, homeowners will be able to access this data so they can make adjustments in their power consumption. The cost of these meters is quite high and is passed on to consumers. The hope is that once consumers have access to the information on their electricity usage, they will take steps to cut their consumption of electricity offsetting the cost. At a cost of $250 to $500 per meter when all costs are included, it is not clear if the meters are worth the expense as reported recently by the WSJ on APRIL 27, 2009.

This raises the question whether there is a cost-benefit trade off from the incremental investments to achieve the goal of a smart grid. Many people equate the smart grid to the growth of the internet. Investments in the internet provided valuable benefits. Others never paid off. I suspect we will see many smart grid investments experience the same fate.

The parallel to investing in the internet is an interesting analogy. The big winners were able to attach themselves to the “killer application” that drove business to them. However, many losers failed to achieve their promise. Those who sold the network components and installed the infrastructure did well. Many invested in ideas looking for the killer app. Unfortunately most never succeeded, leading to significant losses.

What is the killer application of the smart grid? The best definition I found for a killer app comes from www.netreturn.com. “A new product or service that establishes an entirely new category and by being first dominates it creating an enormous return on the initial investment”. Some people believe the smart grid killer app will be the electric plug in car. Not sure, that meets the definition very well.

Anyone remember the smart home? It has been trying to get off the ground for a number of years. The payoff of the smart home was difficult to realize, despite numerous attempts to promote the concept.

So far. There are a number of start-up companies creating products for the smart grid market. Smart grid pure plays such as Comverge (COMV), RuggedCom (RCM.TO) and EnerNOC (ENOC) all became public in the second quarter of 2007. Some very large companies like GE, Honeywell, Cisco and Google have smart grid offerings. Unfortunately, the size of their smart grid services is relatively small when compared to their total sales.

Companies that provide and install many of the components should offer superior returns; much like the companies who sold picks and shovels to the miners. Companies like ABB Ltd (ABB), Siemens A G, and GE are likely to benefit as electric utilities build the new infrastructure for the smart grid. One way to approach this market might be through an ETF that holds companies in the sub-sector. The Cleantech Index CTIUS, created by The Cleantech Group LLC is the basis for the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) PowerShares Cleantech Portfolio ETF (AMEX: PZD) and the KSM Cleantech ETF in Israel. The index includes large companies like ABB and Siemens as well as smaller firms like Vestas Wind systems (VWS.CO), Itron (ITRI), Trimble Navigation (TRMB) and RuggedCom (RCM.TO).

The smart grid will offer exceptional investing opportunities. It will also create substantial losses for those who do not tread carefully. While it is tempting to bet on what will be the killer app for the smart grid, a more conservative strategy is to focus on the companies that can show real cost benefit from their products or services and who generate positive cash flow.

"Super Imperialism:" The Economic Strategy of Imperial America

Michael Hudson's "Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of Imperial America" - First written in 1972, it was updated in a 2003 edition that's every bit as relevant now - thus this review focusing on Hudson's new preface, introduction, and detailed account of the book's theme.

He revisited it in his 2008-09 Project Censored award- winning article titled: "Economic Meltdown - The 'Dollar Glut' is What Finances America's Global Military Build-up" in which he explains the following - the "inter-related dynamics" of:

-- "surplus (US) dollars pouring into the rest of the world for yet further financial speculation and corporate takeovers;"

-- global central banks "recyl(ing) these dollar inflows (into) US Treasury bonds to finance the federal US budget deficit; and most important (but most suppressed in the US media),"

-- "the military character of the US payments deficit and the domestic federal budget deficit."

In other words, the global "dollar glut" finances US corporate takeovers, speculative excesses creating bubbles and global economic crises, America's reckless spending, foreign wars, hundreds of bases worldwide, "military build-up," and culture of militarism and belligerence overall at the expense of democratic freedoms, beneficial social change, and human and civil rights.

In softer form, it's what former US diplomat, advisor, father of Soviet containment, and dove compared to others at that time George Kennan believed should be America's post-WW II foreign policy. In his February 1948 "Memo PPS23, he stated:

"....we have 50% of the world's wealth but only 6.3% of its population. (It makes us) the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships (to let us) maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national society. To do so we will have to dispense with all sentimentality and daydreaming; and our attention will have to be concentrated everywhere on our immediate national objectives. We need not deceive ourselves that we can afford today the luxury of altruism and world benefaction....

We should dispense with the aspiration to 'be liked' or to be regarded as the repository of a high-minded international altruism....We should (stop talking about) unreal objectives such as human rights, the raising of the living standards, and democratization. The day is not far off when we are going to have to deal in straight power concepts. The less we are hampered by idealistic slogans (ideas and practices), the better."

Yet Kennan advocated diplomacy over force in contrast to Paul Nitze, Dean Atcheson and other Truman and succeeding administration officials favoring hardline militarism, future wars, and National Security Council Report 68 (NSC-68) policies to contain the Soviet Union. In 1962, nuclear disaster nearly resulted. The threat remains, more menacingly than ever by "forc(ing) foreign central banks to bear the costs of America's expanding military empire" through recycling their dollars into US Treasuries - something the mass media call "showing their faith in US economic strength."

Hudson refers to a "sinister dynamic," not involving consumers or private investors, but central banks putting "their money" in US Treasuries, but "it is not 'their money' at all. They are sending back the dollars that foreign exporters and other recipients turn over to their central banks for domestic currency."

"When the US payment deficit pumps dollars into foreign economies, these banks (have) little option except to buy US Treasury bills and bonds which the Treasury spends on financing an enormous, hostile military build-up to encircle (today's) major dollar-recyclers China, Japan and Arab OPEC oil producers" - essentially a process by which they finance their own endangerment.

Up to now it's continued, but, given the reckless dollar glut in recent months, with less enthusiasm by bigger buyers and hints of a possible end game or at least less buying than previously - mostly among BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and OPEC countries but other emerging economies as well getting more interdependent on themselves than on America.

In his 2002 preface, Hudson noted that "the US Treasury (pursued the same balance-of-payment) 'benign neglect' (strategy as) it did thirty years" earlier. In 1971, it "caused a global crisis when its $10 billion (level) led to a 10 per cent dollar devaluation." Now it's hundreds of billions annually and still high during the current economic crisis when exports and imports are lower.

Earlier and especially now, if Europe and Asia let the dollar deflate, their exporters will be disadvantaged at a time they can least afford it. So they're forced to "support the dollar's exchange rate by recycling their surplus dollars back to the United States" by buying US Treasuries.

Sooner or later, it's a losing proposition, especially in today's climate with the Federal Reserve sacrificing dollar strength to bail out Wall Street and trying to keep long rates low to contain borrowing costs. Yet the greater the dollar erosion, the more losses foreign investors will incur and less likely they'll tolerate more by buying bad assets.

So far, however, they're still recycling their dollar inflows to fund America's budget deficit and global militarism - something Hudson calls a "Free Lunch in the form of compulsory foreign loans to finance US Government policy."

Even so, they have no say over US policies, yet America and international lending agencies, like the IMF and World Bank, "use their dollar claims" on indebted nations to enforce Washington Consensus diktats. Independent-minded states face sanctions, isolation, coups or wars if they refuse.

Until Nixon closed the gold window in August 1971, America couldn't run unlimited balance-of-payments deficits. However without gold convertibility, it's continued for nearly 40 years along with protectionist policies through generous subsidies to US exporters - most notably to agribusiness. As a result, Hudson sees international tensions growing for the next generation, perhaps even greater now given America's reckless monetarism and perpetual wars.

His book "provid(es) the background for US - European and US - Asian financial relations by explaining how (post-1971) the US Treasury-bill standard came to provide America with a Free Lunch." Also how the IMF promoted debtor nations' capital flight and the World Bank supported "foreign trade dependency on US farm exports...."

The early 1970s dollar crisis and balance-of-payments deficits seem small compared to today. Yet the "Treasury-bill standard (frees) the US economy from (doing) what American diplomats (force on) other debtor nations (with) payments deficits: impose austerity to restore balance in its international payments. The United States alone has been free to pursue domestic expansion and foreign diplomacy with hardly a worry about the balance-of-payment consequences." No other nation has that luxury.

Post-WW II, Washington made other countries dependent on America, something it eschewed after WW I, staying isolationist instead to pursue internal development.

In the 1970s, emerging nations proposed a New International Economic Order (NIEO) through the UN Conference on Trade and Development to promote their own trade and other concerns. It "originated as a response to America's aggressive world economic diplomacy, and how US strategy has provided other nations with a learning curve that they may follow in pressing their own national and regional interests."

The more reckless and belligerent America becomes, the more incentive they have to try - and in greater alliance, with BRIC country partners, may have a greater chance for success.

Introduction

Post-WW II, on the pretext of national security, America pursued "world power....and economic advantage as perceived by American strategists quite apart from the profit motive of private investors."

After WW I, it achieved world creditor status from its "unprecedented terms (in extending) armaments and reconstruction loans to its wartime allies." In 1917, it entered the war late when it felt staying out would "entail at least an interim economic collapse (the result of) American bankers and exporters (getting) stuck with uncollectible loans to Britain and allies." So it joined the Triple Entente as an associate, not a full partner, to protect its $12 billion investment.

Post-war, America was the world's major creditor - but one "to foreign governments with which it felt little brotherhood" and no obligation to stabilize world finance and trade. Unlike its post-WW II policy, it didn't extend loans to foreign countries so they could finance their US-owed debt. Nor did it open its markets to foreign imports. It wanted Europe's empires dissolved, their military spending cut, their wealth "to flow out and their prices to fall" - the idea being in this way to re-establish world payments equilibrium, a very unrealistic notion, but many leading Europeans embraced it. It didn't work and made repayment of foreign debts impossible.

The "world economy emerged from World War I shackled with debts far beyond its ability to pay," except by "borrow(ing) funds from private lenders in the creditor nation to pay the creditor-nation government."

A more enlightened policy would have turned "other countries into (US) economic satellites." But America eschewed European imports, and US investors preferred its own outperforming stock market. On trade and finance, US policies "impelled European countries to withdraw from the world economy and turn within."

America's isolationism prevented it from collecting its foreign debts. "Its status as world creditor proved ultimately worthless as the world broke into nationalist units," and sought independence from foreign trade and payments.

Washington pursued isolationism, thus prompting other nations to seek self-sufficiency. A bankrupt Britain convened the 1932 Ottawa Conference "to establish a system of Commonwealth tariff preferences." By the mid-1930s, Germany began preparing for war. At the same time, the Depression affected one country after another as private capital dried up while at the same time Britain and other nations had mounting debt problems. It begs the question as to why they let them get so onerous in the first place.

American Plans for a Post-WW II "Free-Trade Imperialism"

Early in the war, US officials and economists knew America would prevail and emerge as the world's dominant power. However, transitioning from war to peace needed large export volumes to stimulate economic growth and full employment. "This in turn required that foreign countries be able to earn or borrow dollars to pay" for what they got. So America supplied them through government loans and private investment.

In return, it "name(d) the terms on which" they were provided and structured the IMF and World Bank so countries could "pursue laissez faire policies by insuring adequate resources to finance the international payments imbalances," the result of opening their markets to US imports. It was thought that free trade and investment would result in "balanced international trade and payments....under US leadership."

Post-war, America was the only dominant nation intact, so it alone had enough foreign exchange to invest substantially abroad. Its commercial strength turned other economies into US satellites and assured America achieved maximum world power by:

-- having European nations let US investors buy extractive industries in their former colonies, especially Middle East oil;

-- less developed nations would supply America with raw materials rather than develop their own competitive manufacturing infrastructure;

-- they'd also buy US products and services; and

-- the resulting trade surplus would provide enough foreign exchange for US investors to buy the world's most productive resources and make America even stronger.

The goal was short-lived as:

-- America had tariffs on commodities that other nations could produce more cheaply;

-- the International Trade Organization, in place to subject all economies to the same rules, was scuttled; and

-- private US investment abroad was never enough to finance sufficient foreign purchases of US exports; IMF and World Bank loans also fell short.

America accumulated a payments surplus. It, in turn, weakened its export potential. The lesson learned was that "Beyond a point, a creditor and payment-surplus status can be decidedly uncomfortable."

At first, the enlightened solution wasn't taken - extended foreign aid for rebalancing as Congress put internal interests ahead of foreign policy.

The Cold War Pushes America's Balance-of-Payments into Deficit

Cold War strategy gave Congress an anti-communist reason to "bribe foreign governments" to fight the red menace as well as open their markets to US exporters. It got the Marshall Plan and other aid agreed on to "keep its fellow capitalist countries solvent" and not tempted to turn left. The possibility continued foreign aid for several decades.

At the same time, America's balance-of-payments reached never before attained levels and needed rebalancing "to promote foreign export markets and world currency stability." To buy US products and services, other countries needed resources to pay for them, something only Washington could arrange at a time when they weren't creditworthy.

However, what worked early on became destabilizing as America began "sink(ing) into the mire that had bankrupted every European power that experimented with colonialism." Unlike foreign investors that cut their losses when necessary, national security interests (and industries profiting from them) trump other considerations even when counterproductive. Once begun, military spending takes on a life of its own - something very apparent given its current out-of-control level and growing.

New Characteristics of America's Financial Imperialism

A growing US balance-of-payments surplus was "incompatible with continued growth in world liquidity and trade." So America had to buy more foreign products, services and capital assets than it supplied to foreign buyers. At the same time, it shifted more dollars abroad through a payments deficit, easily handled in the 1950s and 1960s as long as Washington could redeem them with gold. But that game had a limited life span as "Attempts by governments to repay their debts beyond a point extinguish(es) their monetary base."

...."international money (is also) a debt of the key-currency nation." Providing other countries with assets involves going into debt, and repaying it "extinguish(es) an international monetary asset."

By the early 1960s, America approached "the point at which its debts to foreign central banks soon would exceed the value of the Treasury's gold stock." It happened in 1964 the result of Vietnam War spending at an early stage in the conflict. Just as two world wars bankrupted Europe, Vietnam threatened the same fate for America, but it didn't curtail spending and still doesn't.

Earlier, the result was a run on gold with foreign central banks "cash(ing) in their dollar surpluses for American gold almost on a monthly basis." By March 1968, the US Treasury suspended its sales, and informally world central banks agreed to stop converting dollars into the metal. The result - the dollar gold price link was broken, and in August 1971, Nixon closed its window with an official embargo.

Henceforth, in place of gold, the US Treasury-bill (dollar-debt) standard began. No longer able to buy US gold, substituting Treasuries became the only option and "to a much lesser extent, US corporate stocks and bonds."

From then to now, foreign central banks have recycled their dollars to the US government. "Running a dollar surplus in their balance of payments became synonymous with lending (it) to the US Treasury." For its part, America borrows from other central banks and runs trade deficits. The larger they get, the greater the amount available to be loaned back, so today the volume is enormous.

For both sides, the problem is that Washington's guns and butter economy (including trillions to Wall Street) creates greater deficits and inflated spending. America's dominance is maintained, and foreign economies are obliged to finance it. Failure to support the dollar will inflate their own currencies, give US exporters a competitive edge, and ultimately let the world monetary system break down.

The "unique ability of the US Government to borrow from foreign central banks rather than from its own citizens (through taxes) is one of the economic miracles of modern times. Without it, the war-induced American prosperity of the 1960s and early 1970s would have ended quickly...."

How America's Payment Deficit Became a Source of Strength, not Weakness

It let America achieve what no earlier empires did - "a flexible form of global exploitation that controlled debtor countries by imposing Washington Consensus (diktats)." It's used the IMF, World Bank and other international lending agencies for its purposes, while the Treasury-bill standard "obliged the payments-surplus nations of Europe and East Asia to extend forced loans to the US Government." If they don't, world economies face monetary crisis.

Implications for the Theory of Imperialism

Hudson calls it a "new form of imperialism" under which America exploits other nations "via the central banks (and international lending agencies) rather than via the activities of private corporations seeking profits."

A "Super Imperialism" model "pressed foreign governments to regulate their nations' trade and investment to serve US national objectives...Washington Consensus (diktats) made aid borrowers more dependent on their creditors, worsened their terms of trade by promoting raw materials exports and grain dependency, and forestalled needed social modernization such as land reform and progressive income and property taxation."

US companies thus achieved a competitive advantage, not in the marketplace, but by Washington Consensus rules and the Bretton Woods institutions it controls - the IMF, World Bank, etc. What's good for US business benefits America overall and its Super Imperial ambitions.

Today's Source of Financial Instability Compared to the 1920s

The earlier period had a shortage of liquidity. By the early 1970s, it was in surplus, the result of the enormous volume of dollar inflows in world economies. The Korean War began shifting America's balance-of-payments from surplus to deficit. In 1971, Vietnam forced it off gold and "induced a US debtor-oriented international financial policy (with) the rest of the world" - something other nations have been trapped by ever since.

US deficits have disrupted world economies, but its character has changed. Not only does it finance US militarism, but it also "sustain(s) America's stock market and real estate bubble" while at the same time industrial America erodes. In addition, pressure is applied to privatize public enterprises to let this sector pass "into the hands of global finance capital....controlled and shaped by the Washington Consensus."

Under a "new state-capitalist form of imperialism," central banks, not industry, "are the vehicle for balance-of-payments exploitation" with the dollar as the world's reserve currency. It's Super Imperialism because one nation alone gets a Free Lunch right to benefit by getting others to finance its deficits and reckless spending.

The system's unique feature is that other countries may extract their citizens' wealth, but only America extracts theirs through the sale of its Treasury securities.

The World's Need for Financial Autonomy from Dollarization

In its relationship with client countries, America's dollarization policy imposes dependency, not self-sufficiency. It drains "the financial resources of its Dollar Bloc allies (and retards) the development of indebted third world raw-materials exporters...." But its gain isn't put to productive use. It's used instead for militarism and financialization at the expense of its former industrial strength.

It's an unsustainable system, but for other countries to break away, they'll have to renounce Chicago School alchemy, the austerity programs it imposes, and advantages it gives America in trade and other relations. It drains other nations' resources by trapping emerging economies in chronic debt and developed ones into forced buying of US Treasuries.

In return, America gets a Free Lunch. It rules as world debtor, forces other countries into creditor bondage, and threatens to bring down the global monetary system if enough of them balk. So far it's worked because Europe and Asia lack the political will to devise a "New International Economic Order" so nations producing economic gains can keep them and not let America use them to reinforce its "new kind of centralized global planning" - one based on financialization and a US Treasury securities standard, not industrial mechanisms. In WTO terms, it transfers foreign trade gains from other economies to the US, drains their resources overall, promotes dependency, not self-sufficiency, and backs it with hardline militarism and threats of systemic monetary collapse.

Eventually, exploited countries won't tolerate more "taxation without representation," a "quid without quo," a Free Lunch from "the world's payments-surplus nations." The longer America demands it by glutting world economies with dollars, the more likely disadvantaged nations will object. Hudson put it this way in his Project Censored award-winning article:

Today, "the only way a nation can block capital movements is to withdraw from the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (WTO). For the first time since the 1950s, this looks like a real possibility, thanks to the worldwide awareness" of America's dirty game and how it harms them.

"De-Dollarization and the Ending of America's Financial-Military Empire"

In his June 14, 2009 article, Hudson explained that "Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and other top officials of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)" had a two-day June 15 - 16 meeting in Yekaterinburg, Russia, with Brazil attending on the 16th. SCO countries include Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrghyzstan, Uzbekistan with Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia having observer status.

The meeting's stated purpose was "to discuss mutual aid," not challenge America's financial and military empire. Yet it potentially may be pivotal by doing just that.

On June 5, Medvedev told the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that Russia, China and India have an opportunity to "build an increasingly multipolar world order" away from America's "artificially maintained unipolar system (based on) one big centre of consumption, financed by a growing deficit, and thus growing debts, one formerly strong reserve currency, and one dominant system of assessing assets and risks."

In other words, America "makes too little and spends too much," especially with regard to its military. It also gluts the world with dollars that end up in foreign central banks. Either they recycle them into US Treasuries or "let the 'free market' force up their currency relative to the dollar - thereby pricing their exports out of world markets, creating domestic unemployment and business insolvency."

Given a choice up to now, they've had to choose the least bad alternative. "Now they want out" as Medvedev explained in St. Petersburg saying: "what we need are financial institutions of a completely new type, where particular political issues and motives, and particular countries will not dominate." How so is the question, and can it work?

"For starters, the six SCO (and other BRIC) countries intend to trade in their own currencies" to benefit by what America "until now has monopolized for itself." China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan wants a new reserve currency "that is disconnected from individual nations." It was discussed in Yekaterinburg.

These and other countries see America as "a lawless nation, not only financially but also militarily." It forces its rules on others but won't abide by them itself - a practice now intolerable, and there's more.

So much of America's budget is for militarism that the Pentagon faces overstretch while the nation is so indebted it's effectively a deadbeat with amounts impossible to repay. For countries like China, the problem is especially acute given its $2 trillion holdings "denominated in yuan."

A "return to the kind of dual exchange rates common between World Wars I and II" may be the solution - "one exchange rate for commodity trade, another for capital movements and investments."

With or without these controls, "foreign nations are taking steps to avoid being the unwilling recipients of yet more dollars" that face lower valuations the more of them America prints. If SCO countries and Brazil have their way, America "no longer (will) live off the savings of others....nor have the money for unlimited military expenditures and adventures." For these nations and many others, it can't come a moment too soon.

2009-07-03

A Look At How Markets Might Move This Next Quarter

Well the second quarter has just come to an end and everyone on The Street is anxious to see what the results were. According to Bloomberg, stock prices in the second quarter had rebounded sharply from the previous quarter and stock indices were up the most for a quarter since 1998. Of course much of this has to do with the fact that the first quarter was one of the worst for stocks in history, but let’s not ruin a good story for the want of a few facts. Still the question remains, will the market continue to rise?

In order to see if this market has legs and can continue, we must first take look at what has been causing it to rise in the first place. Quite frankly, the only things causing this market to move up are the hope and prayer that second quarter earnings aren’t going to be absolutely atrocious!

As Bob noted in a blog last week, there’s a good probability that there won’t be enough economic data this summer to send the markets significantly higher or lower. This is going to turn the focus back onto individual companies and their earnings.  And the dreaded green shoots-will there be signs of life???

Here’s what the market needs to see out of corporate earnings in order to sustain these levels and go higher:

1.       No more “well, it could be worse” rhetoric. The market needs to see that there are signs of recovery on the horizon. Less bad no longer equals good. Companies need to provide somewhat positive guidance for Q3 and beyond.

2.       Have corporate layoffs allowed companies to reduce their costs enough to begin to return to profitability? Or is more job loss expected? Obviously, more jobs lost mean more difficulty for the economy in general, but this could allow companies to operate “leaner and meaner” to eke out profits.

3.       The overall trend in earnings numbers needs to pick up, meaning that companies had better start beating some of the low-ball numbers the analysts have thrown out. The bar has been set very low for these companies so any misses in earnings will be seen as very bearish.

4.       Green shoots had better not turn out to be weeds! Much has been made of the government stimulus package and how it is going to affect some companies more than others. Those who stand to benefit had better have a positive plan on how this is going to impact their earnings going forward.

5.       No more throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Non-Farm payrolls came in at 467,000, worse than 363,000 analyst consensus. Maybe it’s time for these guys to stop guessing at what’s going to happen in the economy and start turning their attention back to stocks. There are going to be some winners and some losers come earnings season, and it’s time for the market to recognize those companies that are doing well.

As you can see, there is a lot riding on this corporate earnings season and the outlook right now appears to be pretty bleak. If corporate earnings can show signs of life, and companies are beginning to turn it around, then this could stabilize the markets for the next push higher.

If, on the other hand, earnings come in worse than expected, then all the rhetoric and catch phrases for economic recovery won’t amount to anything. Should the latter occur, keep an eye on the US dollar (UUP: 23.91 +0.13 +0.55%) and Japanese yen (FXY: 103.72 +0.79 +0.77%), as the flight to safety trade returns and currency investors pour out of the riskier currencies and return to the dollar and yen. We’re already seeing signs of it today with the poor Non-Farm payrolls numbers in the early session.

So earnings kick off next week with Alcoa (AA: 9.86 -0.49 -4.73%). Let’s hope that it gets started on a positive note, otherwise it could turn out to be a very long summer!