A Quick Look At The Weekly Commodity CRB Index

With markets at potentially major turning points - one way or the other - let’s take a quick look at the CRB (Commodity) Index (I:CRY0.NYB: 259.52 +0.28 +0.11%) for a possible clue.

One almost has to look at the weekly chart to appreciate the price damage broad commodities took in 2008 - it was stellar.

Now, price is forming a counter-rally against last year’s plunge, but price has retraced upwards into a critical resistance area that needs to be addressed.

The $260/$270 Index area reflects the falling 50 week EMA along with the weekly upper Bollinger Band line - both of which are expected to hold as resistance (until breached convincingly).

If this week closes about the same index level as we’re seeing on this chart, then we’ll have formed a doji candle at this overhead potential resistance area, which furthers the odds that resistance will hold.

Then again, if this level is broken to the upside, we would have an “Open Air” scenario where all levels of ‘obvious’ weekly resistance would be broken which would likely result in a momentum move up to the $320 level.

As a note, key Fibonacci price levels to watch are as follows (not labeled):

38.2%:  $305
50.0%:  $335

Let’s see how buyers/sellers react at this technical (price) level for additional clues to what’s in store for the future.