Crude Oil and the US Dollar Elliott Wave Analysis

The USD is in wave b down, currently in wave 5 of (C). We should see further downside before a strong rally in wave c up. Crude is in wave b up, currently in wave 5 of (C). Crude is an excellent example of a bear market correction, since we would want to see at least 3 waves (an abc) complete from the peak. If you are not familiar with Elliott Wave, you can examine the completed decline on any chart that has had a parabolic advance in a so called bubble. The decline completes as 3 waves, with wave b up, as the bear market rally. This rally also coincides with the other markets.

The charts are aligning for a reversal similar to last July before the commodities and markets crashed. Its deja vu before history repeats itself. We still need to see further upside for the DOW, but the next decline should take out the March lows. We still need to see the USD and Euro (not shown) hit their targets before the reversal. The metals still have further upside as well, but we should see a strong correction similar to the one last year, before the bull advance resumes. Many of our charts illustrate triangles or ending diagonals patterns, which indicates a top is near and we could see a reversal as early as next week. The reversal could extend a bit longer, so keep an eye on the USD, when it hits the target and bounces above the top trendline, we expect all of the markets to roll over at the same time.

USD

Crude Oil

We have been extremely busy and it has almost been almost a year since our last free newsletter. The last newsletter covered the USD and Crude as well and also mentioned the forecast for the pending decline in the markets and commodities that occurred in July 2008. We called the top for Crude on the day that it rolled over, with the first downside target of $55.

Since the decline in the markets, we have been too busy to distribute the free newsletters, but I wanted to get this one out, so that you would be aware of the current market condition. Be careful, it is a bear market rally and its close to completing.

These charts are only a guide so that you can follow the action and watch the expected action. The action could play out exactly as illustrated or it may need minor adjustments as we follow it through.

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