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2010-02-11

Debates Heat Up On The Direction Of Gold And Where ETFs Are Heading

“While many famous investors are projecting gold to soar to much higher levels, there are also reasons to expect a further pullback. The federal reserve raising interest rates, lower than expected inflation and weaker demand from China, could all negatively influence the price of Gold.  Gold prices could sink to $820 an ounce by 2014, in the absence of inflation or strong demand from China, says a Citigroup analyst,” Alix Steel Reports From Nuwire Investor.

Alan Heap, an analyst at Citi Investment Research, adds a bearish voice to a crowded debate over where the precious metal is headed. Billionaire investor James Rogers and perma-bear David Tice say gold will hit $2,500. James Turk , Author of GoldMoney, predicts $8,000, while author Mike Maloney is betting on $15,000.

Steel continues to say, “Over the last decade, gold prices have soared from $250 an ounce to an all-time high of $1,227 an ounce, with many analysts believing that gold is in a continued bull market despite short-term pullbacks. Heap broke with this bull view by saying in a research analysis, “Gold: Paper Problems,” that prices will sink to $820 by June of 2014 and head lower long term to $700 an ounce.  As global economies print more money and lower interest rates to survive financial crises, gold becomes popular to own. As paper money loses value, investors turn to gold as an alternative safe haven asset. ”

“As gold prices hit a record high of $1,227 an ounce, the U.S. dollar started to move towards its all-time low of $71.40. As the dollar loses value, commodities become cheaper to buy in other currencies. Many analysts expect low interest rates, President Obama’s $3.8 trillion budget plan, a raised deficit ceiling and money printing pressure the dollar and buoy gold prices. Over the last 10 years, investors have been diversifying into gold more than any other asset class. You no longer have to be a doom and gloom analyst or store gold bars in a bank in order to own theprecious metal. Average institutional investors and world central banks have been increasing their gold holdings supporting high prices. Helping investors buy gold is the emergence of gold ETFs. There are now three physically backed ETFs available SPDR Gold Shares(GLD), iShares Comex Gold (IAU) and ETFS Gold Trust (SGOL),” Steel Reports.

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We have listed some options for investing in gold through ETFs below:

LONG:

The investment (GLD) seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of the price of gold bullion. The trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. The gold held by the trust will only be sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses, in the event the trust terminates and liquidates its assets, or as otherwise required by law or regulation.

The investment (GDX) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index. The fund generally normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and American depositary receipts (ADRs) of companies involved in the gold mining industry. The fund is nondiversified.

The Funds (GDXJ) investment objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Junior Gold Miners Index”). For a further description of the Junior Gold Miners Index, see “Junior Gold Miners Index.”

The objective of (SGOL) the newly listed shares is to reflect the performance of the price of Gold bullion, less the Trust’s operating expenses. The Trust is open ended and is designed for investors who want a cost-effective(1) and convenient(2) way to invest in Gold as well as diversify their Gold holdings.

The investment (UGL) will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. The fund normally invests assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics twice the return of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.

The investment (DGL) seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on gold and is intended to reflect the performance of gold.

The investment (DGP) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.

The objective (IAU) of the trust is for the value of its shares to reflect, at any given time, the price of gold owned by the trust at that time, less the trust’s expenses and liabilities. The trust is not actively managed. It receives gold deposited with it in exchange for the creation of baskets of iShares, sells gold as necessary to cover the trust’s liabilities, and delivers gold in exchange for baskets of iShares surrendered to it for redemption. The trust is not aninvestment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act.

SHORT:

The investment (DZZ) seeks to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. The index is intended to reflect changes in the market value of certain gold futures contracts and is comprised of a single unfunded gold futures contract.

The investment (GLL) will seek to replicate, net of expenses, twice the inverse daily performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar p.m. fixing price for delivery in London. The fund normally invests assets infinancial instruments with economic characteristics inverse to the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective.

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